Democrats desperately need a Plan B.
Plan A is encouraging voters to send in ballots by mail. That seems foolhardy, since Republican lawyers will be in place in key states across the country to challenge votes, delay the process, and hope for another result like Bush v. Gore delivered in 2000 to stop counting votes — or to muddy the process so much that one or more Republican controlled state legislatures throw all their electoral votes to Trump (as the majority in Bush v. Gore asserted that the Constitution sanctioned)*.
The headline in the photo above is from the Washington Post. NPR beat the newspaper to the punch, with a similar headline (and story) yesterday: “More Than 550,000 Primary Absentee Ballots Rejected In 2020, Far Outpacing 2016.”
Two days ago an op-ed in the Post (“I mailed my ballot in on time. Florida tossed it. 2020 will be much worse.”) included this chronology:
In 2018, I mailed my ballot on Oct. 29, eight days before Election Day. Yet every time I checked the website of the Miami-Dade County Elections Department in the following week, I got bad news: “Ballot not tabulated.” Maybe the system was backed up, I thought. I called the office on Nov. 7, the day after the vote, but the woman on the other end of the line said my ballot still hadn’t arrived. No way would it be counted.
Ten days later, I received scanned copies of each side of my ballot envelope. On one side, there was a Nov. 9 postmark. On the other, the Nov. 14 arrival date. My ballot had spent half a month traveling 10 miles across town. And I was in good company: 3,429 other people in Miami-Dade had sent ballots that were deemed late and thus not tallied, according to the late-ballot log I obtained from the Elections Department. Of those, 2,105 had postmarks on or before Election Day. One was postmarked Oct. 17. Statewide, county supervisors discarded more than 15,000 ballots for lateness, as required by Florida law.
Trump can’t win the election unless something unforeseen and dramatic happens between now and November 3 that somehow turns things in his favor. (Not likely.) But his chances of stealing the election — in plain sight as we all watch — are better than we might have anticipated a relatively short time ago.
Republicans can’t be counted on to side with democracy if a victory in the presidential election hangs in the balance (or if a Republican majority in the Senate is in play). Yes, Republicans in Congress pushed back on Trump’s suggestion that we postpone the fall election. But — stop and consider for just a moment all that we’ve witnessed over the past three and a half years — are there any grounds to believe that, say, Mitch McConnell would object to a transparent theft of the election if he thought that he could get away with it?
Consider all of Trump’s enablers. Isn’t the same cynical calculation in play for each of them? If Fox News Channel and the rest of the conservative media universe were on board, nearly half the country would be convinced, if Trump claimed a victory, that Trump had won (or that McConnell had held his majority).
Democrats had better come up with an alternative to Plan A, because that’s a slender reed to hang our fortunes on. We need more than that to protect majority rule. We can’t count on democratic norms; or the rule of law; or legitimate, non-partisan rulings from the courts. Bipartisan consensus on all that stuff is long past.
We can’t count on the timely, reliable delivery of mail; or competent, conscientious county officials tallying votes; or innumerable workaday procedures not to glitch out and effect the outcome. Most of the 550,000 uncounted primary votes — and the delayed and uncounted ballot mailed in by the op-ed writer — are just kinks in the system, not likely the result of bad faith. But in anything resembling a close election, glitches and kinks could determine the outcome. Let’s add Republican bad faith to the mix, because we have that aplenty.
If Republicans decide that half the country (or close enough) is with them, they will not hesitate to muck things up so badly that an outright theft becomes possible. Tweets. On-air rants. Legal challenges. Organized outrage. Manufactured chaos. All in the service of stealing an election (as they hurl that accusation at Democrats).
Republicans with reservations will stay silent. The shouters will have the floor — until it’s time to claim the victory. Then they’ll all accept whatever they’ve managed to pull off.
It would be much uglier than 2000, but that won’t stop them. Ugly works for them.
* “In its infamous 2000 decision in Bush vs. Gore, the U.S. Supreme Court remarked that although every state legislature had given voters the power to vote directly for the president and to allocate the state’s electoral college votes, state legislators could take back that power at any time.“