● The murder of George Floyd is disheartening, enraging, even disorienting. It is jarring to reflect on how near the racial regime in 21^st century America is to the United States of the Jim Crow era. In 2020 being a black American carries extraordinary risks, especially in encounters with the police. Meg Guliford (“We are not okay. And you shouldn’t be either.”) reflects on the burden of these racial realities.

● In the course of an interview, a political scientist who has studied how protest affects politics, says this:

There has been a debate in social science for a long time about whether there was a backlash to the waves of violent protest in 1967 and 1968. Commonly, people will say “riot,” but I am using “violent protest” and “nonviolent protest” as the two categories.

Most of the destruction we’re witnessing doesn’t fit into either category. The opportunity for looting, not protest, drew many people into the streets. They look like protesters, but they’re not:

Two groups emerged more distinctly later in the day: one ransacking shops, the other rallying on message. In Santa Monica, they were often blocks apart. Looters in the shopping district on 4th Street appeared organized, smashing windows with crowbars and skateboards and loading the stolen goods into waiting cars. Some ran or drove off as sirens approached, but mostly continued as they passed. Dozens stole shoes and gear from a Vans shop, while bike after bike was pulled out a hole in the front door of an REI store. Fires were lit, with at least two squad cars burned.

● Research suggests that violence can diminish the prospects for successful protest, and many commentators have recalled Richard Nixon’s successful law and order campaign for president, after urban unrest struck scores of cities in 1967 and 1968. Michael Cohen casts doubt on the idea that the violence of the past week must benefit Trump, because “the advantage that Biden has – and Nixon had in 1968 – is that he seems like a calming force; someone who will bring normalcy in a time of division and chaos.” (Nixon also had a secret plan to win the war, which had spiraled tragically out of control under LBJ.)

● Regarding the 2020 election, what concerns me most is not the Americans who are tired of Trump, but may stick with him because they are anxious about disorder. It is the millions of voting age Americans who are tired of Trump, but see no reason to vote. They are disengaged and cynical.

Jon Favreau, who conducted focus groups with swing voters in four American cities, observes:

More than anything else, what stayed with me after the focus groups was the overwhelming cynicism these voters have towards almost every American institution. What unites most of them isn’t just disgust and disappointment with Trump, but with a political system that only seems to work for a shrinking number of people who aren’t them. 

The research of More in Common revealed the same phenomenon among a group of “passive liberals” (15% of voting age Americans) who are “would-be Democratic voters,” but generally don’t vote: “They’re younger, more urban, more female, more black and Hispanic on average and have a clear orientation toward the Democratic Party. . . . But they feel disaffected and cynical toward the system so they are less inclined to vote as a whole.”

Systemic racism isn’t going to budge much in the next few months. What happens as young protesters (and others watching the protests) see personnel changes at the local level, but no reform at the federal level? Do they double down on their commitment to change and cast votes against the candidate who sees very fine people among white supremacists and neo-Nazis, and the political party that sustains him? Or do they grow disaffected and walk away, cursing the whole corrupt system?

Republicans thrive when faith in government falters, which is assured as long as Trump is in the White House. Dysfunction, gridlock, polarization, even corruption and incompetence, all count as victories for the GOP. They make responsive, effective governance impossible. That works for the deep-pocketed individuals and corporations that benefit most when change can’t happen.

The steep challenge for Democrats, Favreau notes, is to present a vision of progressive politics that would make a tangible difference in the lives of people against whom the system is rigged — and to convince voters that they can deliver on their vision.

(Image from a local TV broadcast of folks with cellphone cameras chronicling the vandalism and looting going on as they pass by.)