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Two responses to the memorandum on President Trump’s call with President Zelensky

“Just so you understand, it’s the greatest witch hunt in American history, probably history, but in American history. It’s a disgraceful thing. The letter was a great letter, meaning the letter revealing the call. That was done at the insistence of myself and other people that read it. It was a friendly letter. There was no pressure. The way you had that built up, that call that was going to be the call from hell. It turned out to be a nothing call other than a lot of people said, ‘I never knew you could be so nice.’” Donald Trump

“The transcript of the call reads like a classic mob shakedown:
–        We do a lot for Ukraine
–        There’s not much reciprocity
–        I have a favor to ask
–        Investigate my opponent
–        My people will be in touch
Nice country you got there.
It would be a shame if something happened to her.”
Adam Schiff

Judge for yourself.

The Speaker announces that the House is launching an impeachment inquiry

“The actions taken to date by the president have seriously violated the Constitution, especially when the President says Article II says I can do whatever I want. For the past several months, we have been investigating in our committees and litigating in the courts so the House can gather all of the relevant facts and consider whether to exercise its full Article I powers, including a constitutional power of the utmost gravity, approval of Articles of Impeachment. And this week, the president has admitted to asking the President of Ukraine to take actions which would benefit him politically. The action of the Trump – the actions of the Trump presidency revealed a dishonorable fact of the president’s betrayal of his oath of office, betrayal of our national security and betrayal of the integrity of our elections.
Therefore today, I’m announcing the House of Representatives moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry. I am directing our six committees to proceed with their investigations under that umbrella of impeachment inquiry.”
— Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

(Image: screen grab from video.)

“We may very well have crossed the Rubicon here.” — Congressman Adam Schiff

(Click on the hyperlink immediately above for a video of the exchange.)

Congressman Schiff, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, has been in sync with Speaker of the House Pelosi in resisting the impeachment of President Trump. (As he says in the video clip, “There is no chance of our persuading the Senate — the Senate Republicans — in an impeachment trial. They have shown their willingness to carry the President’s baggage no matter how soiled its contents.”)

“But if the president is essentially withholding military aid at the same time that he is trying to browbeat a foreign leader into doing something illicit — that is, providing dirt on his opponent during a presidential campaign — then that may be the only remedy that is coequal to the evil that that conduct represents.”

If Trump (and Giuliani — and others in the Executive Branch) have done what has been alleged (and Trump and his personal attorney have come close to admitting it), then the President has used the powers of his office to undermine the upcoming election. That’s a fundamental assault on our democracy. (“This seems different in kind,” in Schiff’s words.)

I agree with Tom Nichols that “If this isn’t impeachable, nothing is,” though there were ample grounds for impeachment before this came to light. David Leonhardt provides an impressive checklist.

But the fundamental calculus of whether or not to impeach hasn’t changed.

I have resisted arguments for impeachment chiefly because there is no chance of persuading Senate Republicans to put the country and the Constitution above partisanship and the GOP. Impeachment by the House followed by acquittal in the Senate would fail to hold Trump accountable. The man will be booted from the White House, if at all, through defeat in November 2020. (As Adam Schiff has stated previously, “2020 is unquestionably the only way he gets removed from office.”)

November 2020 is critical. Doing whatever we can to defeat Trump is a moral imperative. The primary question is, as it has always been (since Senate Republicans will not do the right thing): Does impeachment make Trump’s defeat more or less likely?

Brian Beutler has written, “The only defensible case against impeaching a president like Trump is a prudential one.” An advocate for impeachment, Beutler is decidedly unconvinced by the prudential case.

But at this stage we have no reason to believe there are enough votes in the House to approve articles of impeachment. A failure in that chamber would spell disaster. If the latest transgressions by Trump, or further off the rails activities going forward, lead to unanimous, or near-unanimous agreement among House Democrats to impeach, that will shift the calculus. And Nancy Pelosi will shift accordingly.

It would still be a risk, since Senate Republicans have shown no signs of shifting, for the House to impeach. But with Democratic unity, it might be a risk worth taking. We’re hardly there yet. The public opposes impeachment. Many House Democrats, hardly unreasonably, are sensitive to the opinions of their constituents.

In the meantime, if Nichols, Leonhardt, Beutler, most of the Democratic candidates for president, and many other Americans are successful in their advocacy, an ample majority of House Democrats will find their way on board.

Whether or not that day comes, November 3, 2020 looms large.

With outrage after outrage, Republicans continue to tolerate Trump’s lawlessness

Quote of the day (on the prospects for impeachment):

“As long as Republicans choose to stay relatively united, either in denying evidence of Trump’s malfeasance or claiming that there’s nothing wrong with it, then Democrats will be unable to generate enough constituent pressure to change their minds. Whatever evidence is turned up, Republicans probably can brazen it out if that’s what they really want, regardless of the damage it does to U.S. democracy. So that leaves one question for them: Is this really what you want?”Jonathan Bernstein, Bloomberg

  1. Is this really what Republicans want? That’s what I’m betting on for the foreseeable future.
  2. And, if that changes between now and November 3, 2020, I’ll wager that it won’t be a July 2019 phone call, or a Justice Department cover-up of that call, that prompts Republicans to recalibrate their support for Trump. It will be something else (almost certainly a number of something elses). Congressional Republicans, with relentless air cover from Fox News and the conservative media, haven’t budged from Trump’s corner up till now, willingly shrugging off the consequences for democratic institutions and the rule of law. They can weather this episode as well.
  3. Instead, we’ll see little more than baby steps to placate critics – such as McConnell’s sudden reversal yesterday on election security funding.
  4. On the column that Bernstein didn’t write: while Democrats “can’t do much about this by themselves,” it has been disheartening to watch the hapless efforts of the House Judiciary Committee to tell the story of Trump’s corruption.  (I had such high hopes in early June. Now, not so much.)

(Image: Gage Skidmore, Flickr.)

Is Kamala Harris “the most natural” political talent among the Democratic candidates? Not so fast!

“…I come to praise Harris today, not dismiss her. As the savvy political analyst Sean Trende wrote last week, she is the most natural politician in the field, and people are now underrating her chances.” – David Leonhardt, New York Times

I agree with Leonhardt (and Jonathan Bernstein, who linked to this op-ed): there’s no reason to count out Kamala Harris in her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination. It’s hardly out of the question that she could pull off a victory (though she’s experiencing a “summer slump,” in Leonhardt’s words).

It’s Leonhardt’s point – and Sean Trende’s – about Harris as the most naturally talented candidate in the field that I question. Trende phrased it this way: “She’s the most natural political athlete of the bunch …

In the last presidential campaign the Democratic nominee conceded that she wasn’t a natural at seeking office, which serves to put the compliment of Harris in perspective.

Hillary Clinton is not a natural politician, nor is she a natural public speaker. This is not my opinion; this is Clinton’s own. “Look, I have said before and it won’t surprise anybody to hear me say it, this is not easy for me,” Clinton said at a debate in March. “I am not a natural politician, in case you haven’t noticed, like my husband or President Obama.” She has to work hard, in other words, to achieve something that appears to be an innate gift for many of her peers.

If this was meant to endear the voting public toward her, it’s not clear that it worked. Last week, Jamelle Bouie used Clinton’s own “natural politician” line in perhaps exactly the opposite way that Clinton’s camp hoped it would be used, as an example of the reasons why liberals are worried that “she doesn’t inspire in ways we expect our presidential hopefuls to inspire”; a Salon piece echoed that sentiment, repeating the line that she lacks “the charm of her husband or the charisma of Barack Obama.”

So is charm or charisma the mark of natural political talent? Or a savvy gift for relating to people, perhaps?

In an earlier political era, Lyndon Johnson was often referred to as a natural-born politician:

Johnson was … just a natural politician.…

When he was a senator, he was about to embark on a re-election campaign tour back in Texas and convened his speechwriters to review a draft speech that they had done for him. Johnson reviews this speech and he comes upon a passage from Socrates.

And he looks at this passage, and he says, “Socrates? Socrates? Now, let me get this straight. I’m going back home to Texas to talk to just plain folks, and you have me quoting Socrates?” He said, “Keep the quote in, but start it with, ‘My daddy always used to say…”

Johnson had an instinctive understanding of how to connect to people and, often, this was attributed to LBJ’s yearning for connection, to his passion for hand-shaking and back-slapping. (Quite unlike Hillary Clinton, certainly.)

Johnson is a back-slapper, a shoulder hugger, a knee squeezer. “I like to press the flesh,” he says, “and look a man in the eye.”

As Hillary Clinton suggested, the former Secretary of State’s spouse, the exceedingly empathetic Bill Clinton, has long been regarded as a natural pol.

“Bill Clinton is an incredibly gifted politician. Bill Clinton is a room and it doesn’t matter how many people are in the room, you think he’s talking to you.”

Paul Krugman, who made this observation about Clinton, contrasted him to Barack Obama. “But, in fact, Bill Clinton was not a consequential president. And Obama, although clearly not the natural politician, is a consequential president.”

Perhaps Krugman is suggesting that Obama was too cerebral, too reserved, to be considered a natural à la LBJ or Bill Clinton. Another contrast (of two legendary California pols) draws on that distinction: Jerry Brown, elected and reelected to the governorship of California twice (serving two terms beginning in 1975 and then again in 2011), was often compared with his father, Pat Brown (governor in an earlier era), who was thought of as the natural.

This small world, held together by a dense web of friendships and favors, was made-to-order for a man like Pat Brown. Smart, affable, and energetic, Pat had a natural politician’s ready laugh and long memory.

Jerry was unlike his father in many ways: less amiable, more introspective, and less disciplined, he was not a natural politician.

Does being a natural politician hinge on amiability, camaraderie, a longing for contact with people – or on a different skill set? Some observers might insist that (contrary to Krugman’s assessment) the intelligent, savvy Obama – a more restrained, more cool (in Marshall McLuhan’s sense) persona than LBJ, Bill Clinton, or Pat Brown – was nonetheless a natural politician. His personal gifts, including his oratory, were certainly a foundation of his political success.

I’d add that Jerry Brown’s successes over a long career arguably surpass those of his father. And Brown completely dominated Sacramento in his final two terms as governor.

Perhaps this mastery, after decades of experience, was learned and not natural? Surely that is not a distinction that the assessment of Harris’s political talent hinges on. First elected in 2004, she has been immersed in the political world even longer. She’s had ample time to learn.

Just to cover all the bases, let’s turn to the other side of the aisle. The most successful Republican political figure in the past half century, Ronald Reagan, was renowned for his stage presence, especially in front of the camera, and for communicating evocative themes in clear, simple terms with convincing sincerity.

Above all, Ronald Reagan was also a natural politician. Virtually every new account demonstrates that the stage and not the Statehouse or Capitol Hill may be the most effective launching pad for power in a picture culture.

He clearly had a knack for politics. Reagan was elected president of the Screen Actors Guild in 1947, long before he spent years honing conservative talking points as a spokesman for General Electric. But, natural or not, Reagan (as with the other successful politicians) had decades to develop into the iconic figure we remember – ‘the great communicator’ who could speak for a nation.

I’ll readily grant that Kamala Harris has an impressive array of political skills. But what is it, exactly, that she has that none of the other Democratic candidates possess in such ample measure? Why is she “the most natural political athlete of the bunch”?

She’s a good debater – sometimes; that is, when she is well-prepped in advance and doesn’t have to think on her feet (though thus far she has turned in an impressive performance in one debate out of three). A handful of sharp questions in the Senate Judiciary Committee also speak of ample preparation, not agility.

Harris – like Pat Brown, as referenced above – has a ready laugh (even when she laughs longer and harder than anyone else in the room at her own quips).

Is she charismatic? That’s a loaded word. One that is often associated with youth, vigor, and – yes – good looks. Think of JFK. Think also of Barack Obama’s enthusiastic commentary on Harris as “the best-looking attorney general in the country.” Trende’s use of the word ‘athlete’ is also suggestive. Does charisma turn on physicality, if not physical attractiveness?

In Leonhardt’s own reckoning, the Harris campaign (at this stage) has exposed a couple of significant weaknesses. “There is a pattern here. Harris can be too quick to speak or react without thinking.” The second weakness is her failure to “develop a clearer theory of her campaign’s case.” In other words, to articulate why she is running for president. She must, Leonhardt advises, “help voters understand her values and priorities.”

Leonhardt continues, “Over the last several months, I’ve had several Democratic voters tell me a version of the same story. They had just listened to Harris appear on television or a podcast, and they really wanted to like her. Yet she didn’t quite meet their expectations. They weren’t sure exactly who she was.”

Leonhardt and I – with those Democratic voters he’s spoken with – are in agreement again. But I think that singling out Harris as the “most natural” talent among the dozen or so experienced Democratic candidates pursuing the nomination reveals a hunger for an inspirational opponent to take on Donald Trump; a hope that Harris will live up to her resume and her identity and those fleeting moments in front of the cameras when she prosecuted the case (against Barr and Biden, for instance); a fervent desire to read into her something Democrats long for – rather than a reasonable assessment of Senator Harris’s political touch circa 2019.

Ed Kilgore writes today of Senator Harris:

From the get-go, she was a smart-money favorite. She was telegenic, well-spoken, and multiracial (half-Asian-American, half-African-American, and married to a white Jewish guy to boot), with a solid résumé of federal, state, and local offices — and nary an electoral defeat.

Democrats have been pulling for her – longing for her to succeed. But, as we watch the primary play out, do Harris’s political skills really set her apart?

The best politicians, those with a real mastery, seem to enjoy the give and take of the political arena. And we enjoy watching political figures – at least those on our side – who thrive in that environment, those who make it look easy and effortless. We may call them naturals.

I have no doubt that Sean Trende can make a case for the natural talent of the junior Senator from California. But placing her above everyone else in this diverse group of candidates? I don’t believe that what we’ve actually witnessed can justify that judgment.

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse lobs a warning to SCOTUS’s Republican men

Earlier this month Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and four of his Democratic colleagues filed a remarkable amicus curiae brief in a gun control case before the Supreme Court. The message to the five men appointed by Republican presidents to the high court was direct and unflattering.

The conclusion – after an amply documented, well focused critique of the court and of the deep-pocketed interests whose dark money has shaped the court: “The Supreme Court is not well. And the people know it. Perhaps the Court can heal itself before the public demands it be ‘restructured in order to reduce the influence of politics.’ Particularly on the urgent issue of gun control, a nation desperately needs it to heal.”

A May 2019 Quinnipiac poll cited in the brief documents these public attitudes. The poll reported that 55 percent of Americans believe the Supreme Court is motivated mainly by politics and a majority believes that “Supreme Court should be restructured in order to reduce the influence of politics.” The reference to restructuring, of course, evokes Franklin Roosevelt’s proposal to pack the court.

Whatever the GOP stalwarts on the Court make of this, Republican commentators have reacted predictably. David French wrote in National Review, “It is easily the most malicious Supreme Court brief I’ve ever seen.” The Wall St. Journal described it as “an enemy of the court brief.” Ted Cruz tweeted, “Extremely concerning to see Senate Democrats threaten federal judges like this. If this isn’t an improper attempt to influence – read: OBSTRUCT – the highest court in the land, then I don’t know what is.”  

And let’s not leave out Lindsay Graham: “Packing the Supreme Court… Bad idea. Liberal dream. Trump’s 3rd term is looking better and better!”

On the other side of the aisle, Ian Milhiser (whose book, Injustices: The Supreme Court’s History of Comforting the Comfortable and Afflicting the Afflicted, reflects his view of the court’s malign influence throughout most of U.S. history) agreed that the brief was hardly typical (though he didn’t get bent out of shape about it):

A tone of ritualized obsequiousness pervades most briefs filed in the Supreme Court of the United States. Judges are powerful and at the Supreme Court level, unaccountable. They wield enormous, arbitrary power not just over litigants but over the lawyers who appear in their courtrooms. So when most lawyers speak to a court, they speak with a painful awareness of the arbitrary control separating the bar from the bench.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), however, is not most lawyers.

Senator Whitehouse with Senators Mazie Hirono, Richard Blumenthal, Dick Durbin, and Kirsten Gillibrand are unsparing in their brief, which opposes standing for the plaintiffs in the case (New York State Rifle and Pistol Association Inc v. City of New York, New York). Straightforwardly, since the gun group objected to a New York City ban on transporting guns, and the city has repealed the law, the case would appear to be moot. But the court rejected a petition from NYC to declare the case moot.

The brief portrays the petitioners as deep-pocketed special interests openly promoting a political project:

Confident that a Court majority assures their success, petitioners laid their cards on the table: “The project this Court began in Heller and McDonald cannot end with those precedents,” petitioners submit.

The brief notes that, at this stage, there is no live legal question before the court, no grounds for standing, but that gun rights advocates believe that, with Trump’s appointees on the bench, they are headed toward a victory.

Noting that this “effort did not emerge in a vacuum,” the brief documents the NRA’s $1.2 million television campaign in support of Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the court (because he would “break the tie” in Second Amendment cases) and the campaign against a Democratic Senator who opposed the nomination.

Further, a Federalist Society publication suggested that “the logjam has been cleared” with Justice Kavanaugh replacing Kennedy on the court. The brief continued, “This commentary is of particular note because it was published by an organization that has such a prominent role in the Republican Party’s efforts to shape the federal judiciary in favor of donor interests,” and references the Executive Vice President of the Federalist Society, Leonard Leo (whom Politico describes as “the quiet architect of a pivotal shift to the right throughout the federal judiciary”), linking him to “a million-dollar contribution to the NRA’s lobbying arm, and to a $250 million network largely funded by anonymous donors to promote right-wing causes and judicial nominees.”

The brief observes, “The Society counts over eighty-six percent of Trump administration nominees to circuit courts of appeal and to this Court as active members,” and comments on the “massive political spending,” largely from dark money, that funded this effort. In a footnote, the brief quotes former White House counsel Donald McGahn (of Mueller report fame):

Our opponents of judicial nominees frequently claim the president has outsourced his selection of judges. That is completely false. I’ve been a member of the Federalist Society since law school—still am. So, frankly, it seems like it’s been insourced.

“The influence effort directed at this Court has been industrialized. In this particular ‘project’ to rewrite and expand the Second Amendment, petitioners are flanked by an army of nearly sixty amici.” But, the brief argues, since the donors are hidden from view, it is impossible to know how widespread the support is. “Were there … transparency, this amicus army would likely be revealed as more akin to marionettes controlled by a puppetmaster than to a groundswell of support rallying to a cause.”

In contrast:

Out in the real world, Americans are murdered each day with firearms in classrooms or movie theaters or churches or city streets, and a generation of preschoolers is being trained in active-shooter survival drills. In the cloistered confines of this Court, and notwithstanding the public imperatives of these massacres, the NRA and its allies brashly presume, in word and deed, that they have a friendly audience for their “project.”

Conservatives reject principles, embrace activism

Since the law the plaintiffs objected to has been struck down, the case – by all appearances – is moot.  The brief quotes both John Jay, the court’s first chief justice, and John Roberts, the current chief justice, to the same effect: the judiciary was not established to settle hypothetical disagreements. Benjamin Cardozo (former SCOTUS justice nominated by Herbert Hoover) is invoked, rejecting the notion that a judge is “a knight-errant, roaming at will in pursuit of his own ideal of beauty or of goodness,” and, again, Roberts, cautioning that the Supreme Court “is not a legislature,” though “It can be tempting for judges to confuse [their] own preferences with the requirements of the law.”

Be that as it may, recently – as the Federalist Society project has found greater success – Republicans on the bench have begun to abandon conservative judicial principles: principles that they have embraced in the past. When Clarence Thomas sought confirmation before the Senate Judiciary Committee in 1991, he said that “you cannot simply, because you have the votes, begin to change the rules, to change precedent.” That was then. This is now (Thomas in 2019): “When faced with a demonstrably erroneous precedent, my rule is simple: We should not follow it.”

The pattern of outcomes is striking; and so is the frequency with which these 5-4 majorities disregarded “conservative” judicial principles like judicial restraint, originalism, stare decisis, and even federalism.

The brief cites this record: From the term beginning October 2005 through the term beginning October 2017, the Supreme Court issued 78 5-4 (or 5-3) opinions in which the majority consisted solely of Republican-appointed justices. “In 73 of these 5-4 decisions, the cases concerned interests important to the big funders, corporate influencers, and political base of the Republican Party.” In every case, the justices ruled in favor of the Republican Party’s interests.

With bare partisan majorities, the Court has influenced sensitive areas like voting rights, partisan gerrymandering, dark money, union power, regulation of pollution, corporate liability, and access to federal court, particularly regarding civil rights and discrimination in the workplace. Every single time, the corporate and Republican political interests prevailed.

The pattern, and the abandonment of conservative legal principles in favor of partisan activism (which I’ve documented in previous posts), is clear. Add the Federalist Society’s decades-long campaign and the unprecedented refusal of the U.S. Senate – once Republicans gained control of the chamber – to confirm Barack Obama’s appellate court nominees, to hold hearings on Merrick Garland’s nomination, to adhere to the ‘blue slip’ rule, and so on. And then add Brett Kavanaugh’s unhinged, aggrieved, conspiratorial hate-fest directed at the Clintons and the Democratic Party during his confirmation hearings, and we begin to hear talk of restructuring the court.

Fair enough. So, why did Whitehouse and company file this brief? The Senator rejects the accusation that he was threatening the court.

“In the same way that you might warn somebody walking out on thin ice — ‘Hey, the ice is thin out there, you want to be careful, maybe you want to come in’ — I think that was the motivation for filing this brief.”

But what a warning. “This filing is a badass move by these Senate Democrats. The Republican justices on the Supreme Court should be on notice that the public is quickly losing faith in the court as a legitimate institution.” — Brian Fallon, Executive Director of Demand Justice

Lawrence Tribe wasn’t as enthusiastic about putting the Republican men on notice: “I agree the Court should drop this case as moot and am usually a fan of @SenWhitehouse but I think this brief was inappropriately — and stupidly— threatening. If anything is calculated to get the Court’s back up, it’s a brief like this. Really bad move.”

Professor Tribe made a career out of shaping arguments to appeal to one or another of a series of Republican-appointed swing justices, so – okay – he wouldn’t have written this. Presumably he would have been aiming to influence the current swing justice, John Roberts, though he is much further to the right than swing justices in previous decades.

So, should Whitehouse have focused narrowly on standing, rather than unleashing his grand critique? Should he, if he insisted on raising the broad issues in the brief, have tread more gently? Well, I suppose so, if his intent were to influence John Roberts — that is, unless Whitehouse concluded that bluntness, or (contra his denial) a threat, or perhaps authenticity conveyed through a more direct message, would be more effective at influencing the chief justice.

Or this may be a case of senators being senators, of Whitehouse, Hirono, Blumenthal, Durbin, and Gillibrand just sounding off because they’ve had enough of SCOTUS’s Republican men, and of McConnell and Graham and Cruz and Trump … They might be justified in thinking: Why should Democratic Senators feel constrained about offending the shameless partisans in Donald Trump’s corner? (It’s a different era, Professor Tribe. Those old tricks have seen their day.)

Jonathan Chait writes today about the book American Carnage:

The most interesting revelation in Alberta’s book may be the degree to which Republicans convinced themselves of their own lofty rhetoric. When he predicted that he and his allies would resist Trump’s authoritarianism, thereby proving that their opposition to Obama was genuine, Mulvaney clearly believed it. And when Ted Cruz told his aides during the primaries, “History isn’t kind to the man who holds Mussolini’s jacket,” he surely had no idea what lay in store for him. If Trump has accomplished anything, it is to force Republicans to see their party and themselves a little more clearly.

Well, maybe. If so, then perhaps that’s what’s behind the Whitehouse brief. The five Republican men, if they read the brief, may be ‘forced’ to see themselves a little more clearly. Could that be the point?

Here’s another possibility. Dissenting justices don’t write their opinions to change the minds of sitting justices in the majority, so much as they write to influence future justices. Their hope is that their views will capture majorities at a time that has yet to come.

This amicus brief may be speaking to future justices, to law professors and students, to Democratic officeholders and activists, and perhaps to the four women and men on the court appointed by Democratic presidents.

This may be a shout out to allies. It may serve to lay the groundwork for future decisions and future campaigns.

It cheered me. I’m sure it cheered others. That may be reason enough to have filed it.

(Image: wikipedia.)

Campaign event as theatrical performance – Elizabeth Warren wins critical plaudits

Peter Marks, theater critic for the Washington Post, is doing a series “applying a theater critic’s eye to the performative skills of the presidential candidates.”

Yesterday he critiqued Elizabeth Warren:

“Warren bounds onto the stage…. The affect is upbeat, barely contained energy. She just can’t wait to tell you stuff…. It’s almost as if you were attending a one woman Broadway play. She’s as agile as many physical comedians. She uses her hands gracefully driving home points with precise fluid gestures. In her native Oklahoma twang she can speak for 30 minutes or longer without notes or ums or ers. And her presentation, even her humor, tells a story that skillfully integrates her own biography with a political philosophy. A philosophy that she is able to boil down to what sounds like everyday common sense.”

[Editor’s notes: 1. This is the third in a series. I hadn’t checked out the first, on Kamala Harris, or the second, on Joe Biden, but — full disclosure — I’m an Elizabeth Warren fan and I enjoyed the video the Washington Post produced for the series.

2. I’ve linked to Marks’ videos, not his written reviews. (The quote above is my transcription from the Warren video.)

3. I wondered how Donald Trump might respond to reports of Warren as rock star, delivering bravura performances before big crowds. This brought to mind an apparently apocryphal story (it was always hard to take literally, though it has had staying power) about the 1950 Florida Democratic primary campaign for the U.S. Senate. At the time Time magazine reported a “yarn” that George Smathers, who went on to defeat incumbent Senator Cluade Pepper, had told campaign crowds:

Are you aware that Claude Pepper is known all over Washington as a shameless extrovert? Not only that, but this man is reliably reported to practice nepotism with his sister-in-law, he has a brother who is a known homo sapiens, and he has a sister who was once a thespian in wicked New York. Worst of all, it is an established fact that Mr. Pepper, before his marriage, habitually practiced celibacy.

So far, in spite of Warren’s command of the stage, no one has alleged that she is an actual thespian.]

(Image from WaPo video on YouTube.)

Opposing the Alt-Right on the streets without buying into their violent, macho dramatics

PopMob is enjoying the fight against the far-right on the streets of Portland.

Josh Marshall comments, “In combating fascists and all manner of rightist hooligans and authoritarians, it is a constant battle not to be drawn into fighting on their terms. … At a basic level we must resist their drama and their conceits as much as their violence and their hate.”

Marshall quotes Effie Baum, a spokesperson for PopMob: “The far-right wants to get into fights and act all macho. We want to make that virtually impossible.”

The Unpresidented Brass Band.
Unicorns against fascism.

Vegans against fascism.
“Be the spectacle.”

“Short for Popular Mobilization, PopMob is a group of concerned Portlanders united around a single, common goal: Inspire people to show up and resist the alt-right with whimsy and creativity. We’re activists and organizers from many groups, including labor rights, arts, education, healthcare, and more. We believe that the people of Oregon don’t want what the alt-right is selling and we know we can push back against hate as one strong community.”

(Image above headline from PopMob Facebook page.)

Trump has spooked Democrats, who fear nominating a women for president

Quote of the day:

“Trump has so thoroughly demoralized Democrats that they are exhibiting sexism in their own political judgments in the guise of ‘electability.'”Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine

Kilgore links to Li Zhou’s attempt (in Vox) to knock down fears (based on Trump’s 2016 election) that voters are not ready to elect a woman president.

Women powered the 2018 midterm victories to take back the House. And, as Zhou observes, most of the seats flipped from Red to Blue were won by women.

Zhou also notes that Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, as well as Amy Klobuchar and Kirsten Gillibrand, have never lost an election. In contrast, Joe Biden — Mr. Electability, a safe white male — (when not on a ticket with Barack Obama) suffered two not-even-close defeats in previous bids for the White House.

Zhou notes the added enthusiasm generated by women and people of color; cites the lack of empirical evidence that a woman can’t win in the Midwest (or elsewhere); and rejects electability as a squishy, untrustworthy guide.

Kilgore concludes:

So if you happen to have two women, one “progressive” and one “moderate,” who can credibly promise a greater 2020 payoff than just ejecting Trump from office, why keep preferring men who appear to live in a different era (Biden) or country (Sanders)? Yes, Trump has gotten deeply into the donkey’s head, and has convinced Democrats that his dark misogynistic soul is America’s. That’s some serious damage.

(Image from Wikipedia, which offers this description: A satirical photo from 1901, with the caption “New Woman—Wash Day”. Shown is a woman wearing knickerbockers and knee socks (traditional male attire) and smoking a cigarette, supervising as a man (who appears to be wearing a dress and an apron) does the laundry with a tub and washboard.)

Just how many liberals are there in this center-right nation?

“In 2018, for the first time, a majority of Democrats said they considered themselves to be “liberal,” according to Gallup. At 51 percent, the 2018 share is only 1 point greater than the share of Democrats who identified as liberal in 2017, but it’s very different from how Democrats’ political ideologies broke down in the 1990s and early 2000s.” — Janie Velencia, FiveThirtyEight

The same poll revealed that among all Americans, not just Democrats, 26% identified as liberal. (That’s the chart on the left in the image above.) The same poll revealed that 35% of Americans identified as conservative and 35% embraced the moderate label, which is why the U.S. is often referred to as ‘center-right.’

Meanwhile, James Stimson, a political scientist who has been measuring the public policy preferences of Americans since 1952, has found that Americans are more liberal than at any time in the 68 years since he has been doing the survey.  (That’s the chart on the right.) The 2018 result: support among Americans for government action — that is, for liberal public policies — stands at 69%.

That’s quite a difference. Why? Because the first survey asks Americans to self-identify; in other words, to choose the label that best describes their political ideology.

The second survey, on the other hand, doesn’t ask Americans to label themselves; instead it asks their opinions on a range of issues (background checks for gun purchases [which weighs in with 89% support], Medicare for all who want it [70%], government regulation of prescription drug prices [67%], a pathway to citizenship for immigrants in the U.S. illegally [64%], and so on). The Public Policy Mood survey crunches the numbers to get a result based on actual policy preferences of Americans.

That 69% is just a shade above the previous high, recorded in 1962, in an era when faith in government to right wrongs and to offer protection to Americans (with the passage of Medicare, Medicaid, civil rights and voting rights legislation, and so on).

In other words, as the authors of Asymmetric Politics noted, Americans are ideologically conservative (they think of themselves as conservative) and operationally liberal (they endorse the liberal policies that benefit them and their neighbors). So, Democrats campaign on specific issues: healthcare coverage for preexisting conditions, lowering prescription drug prices, offering a public option …; while Republicans campaign on ideology: linking Democrats with the Democratic Socialists of America and labeling them as “far to the left” and of course as “socialists.”

Yesterday, Gregory Koger highlighted the Public Policy Mood results to explain several strategic choices that Democrats and Republicans have made as we head into the 2020 elections, including the decision by Republicans to hit hard on socialism (“an extreme ideological label”), even though that didn’t work for them in 2018.

(Image composed of two charts: left, from FiveThirtyEight, and right, from Mischiefs of Faction.)