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Just another data point or two regarding our off the rails president

[Editor’s note: Donald Trump’s prodigious number of lies; his ignorance of policies, as well as the positions and interests of others (allies and opponents), which cripple his ability to strategize – exposing the foundational lie that he is a good dealmaker; his self-serving corruption; his inability and disinterest in the Constitution, the law, democratic institutions, or the broader public interest; and his deliberate efforts to sow disunity in the country – all of this is well known and, perhaps, is more significant than his bonkers press conference declaring a national emergency or non sequiturs uttered at his rally in El Paso. But, from time to time, when I watch him, I am gobsmacked by what I’ve witnessed, as this post relates.]

After watching a few minutes of Donald Trump’s meandering, bewildering stream of nouns and verbs at the beginning of his press conference this morning, I remarked that if the text were a movie script featuring a U.S. president, the context would be a situation where the character’s mind had been damaged through catastrophic accident, illness, or attack by an enemy of the state.

Earlier this week, I happened to see a brief clip of his rally in El Paso. He has been spreading lies about the border – of drugs, human trafficking, and criminal gangs – to justify building his wall. Below is an excerpt, which followed a paragraph where he remarked on caravans, bad laws, asylum seekers, the backlog of immigration cases, and “the system put in place by really dumb people or people that did not have the best interest of our country at heart.”

In this passage he essentially appeals to the crowd to adjudicate the veracity of the stories he has been telling about El Paso, pre-wall, having one of the highest crime rates in the country. Through their enthusiastic applause and cheers, he finds vindication – proof of the claims, unmoored to any basis in fact, that he is spreading.  

I have provided the text, which leaves out the clapping and shouting that follow many of his remarks. You can watch and listen at the link beginning at 00:54:15.

“And there’s no better place to talk about border security, whether they like it or not. Because I’ve been hearing a lot of things. ‘Oh, the wall didn’t make that much of a difference.’ You know where it made a difference? Right here in El Paso.
And I’ve been watching, where they’ve been trying to say, ‘Oh, the wall didn’t make that much’ – You take a look at what they did with their past crimes and how they made them from serious to much less serious. You take a look at what the real system is. I spoke to people who have been here a long time. They said when that wall went up, it’s a whole different ballgame.  I mean, is that a correct statement?
A whole different ballgame.
I’ll give you another example. And I don’t care if a mayor is a Republican or a Democrat. They’re full of crap when they say it hasn’t made a big difference.
I heard the same thing from the fake news. They said, ‘Oh, crime actually stayed the same.’ Didn’t stay the same! It went way down. And look at what they did to their past crimes and look at how they reported those past crimes. Went way, way down.
These people. You know, you’d think they’d want to get to the bottom of a problem and solve a problem, not try and pull the wool over everybody’s eyes. So, for those few people who are out there on television saying, ‘Oh, it didn’t make too much of a difference ’– It made a tremendous difference.
People from El Paso, am I right?”

Affirming applause. Which has taken the place of facts, evidence, and truth.

Today at the White House, Trump recalled that scene (at 6:33):

“When you look and when you listen to politicians, in particular certain Democrats, they say it all comes through the port of entry. It’s wrong. It’s wrong. It’s just a lie. It’s all a lie. They say walls don’t work. Walls work a hundred percent. Whether it’s El Paso – I really was smiling because the other night I was in El Paso. We had a tremendous crowd and – tremendous crowd – and I asked the people, many of whom were from El Paso, but they came from all over Texas. And I asked them, I said, ‘Let me ask you the – as a crowd, when the wall went up, was it better?’ You were there, some of you.

It was not only better, it was like a hundred percent better. You know what they did.”

Was it better? Facts don’t matter to this president. The crowd – the cheers of his base – that’s what matters.

P.S. I wasn’t the only one nonplused by Trump’s press conference this morning. I recommend a post by Kevin Drum, who offers, via tweets from journalists and commentators, a string that “captures the spirit of Trump’s remarks better than any normal media story you’ll read.”

The Howard Schultz campaign is already helping Donald Trump

“After this week’s CNN town hall, it’s more and more clear that any money Howard Schultz might spend on an independent presidential bid would function as an in-kind campaign contribution to Donald Trump.” – Ronald Brownstein

“To win a majority of electoral college votes, which Schultz says would be his goal, he would have to ultimately replace the Democratic nominee as the favored choice of voters who do not want Trump to win a second term.” – Michael Scherer

Schultz has praised the “thoughtful analysis” of a conservative commentator who fears the Democrats will nominate a “hard-left” candidate and – in the course of the column – demeans Kamala Harris (“shrill … quasi-socialist promising pie in the sky”), Elizabeth Warren (“Fauxcahontas … playing a game of socialist one-upmanship”), and “supposedly centrist” Joe Biden. The critic also name-checks Bernie Sanders and, of course, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. 

Schultz, who claims to be a “lifelong Democrat” – but not a very attentive one (“Schultz voted in just 11 of 38 elections dating back to 2005”), took back the praise he had offered after folks actually read the “thoughtful analysis” he was promoting;  he deleted the tweet when he was asked about it by the Washington Post, and blamed someone else for posting the link on his personal Twitter account.

Nonetheless, he embraces the conservative views expressed in the deleted column. It’s the “hard-left,” “quasi-socialist” Democrats that Schultz fears and, most scary and objectionable of all, the proposal (broached by conservatives’ favorite new Democratic Member of Congress, Ocasio-Cortez) to raise the marginal tax rate for incomes over $10 million to 70% (the level in the United States in 1980).

When asked at his CNN Town Hall what he thinks his personal income tax rate – as a billionaire – should be, Schutz concedes that he “should pay more taxes,” but tap dances for more than a minute (with platitudes about corporate taxes, the Republican tax bill, comprehensive tax reform, as well as personal income tax rates for millionaires) without giving an answer, at which point the moderator Poppy Harlow reminds him of the question and asks, “Give me a sense. Are you talking about you should pay 2% higher? Ten percent higher, twenty percent higher federal income tax?”

He stammers and says, “I don’t – Poppy, I don’t know what the number is….”

“Ballpark it for people,” she asks.

He won’t. He finally gets to the heart of his concern, “I think that what’s being proposed at 70% is a punitive number. And I think there are better ways to do this.”

Better ways. In other words, instead of significant increases in the personal tax rates of billionaires, we should seek revenue increases somewhere else.

Brownstein notes that on issue after issue, Schultz’s positions align with Democrats, while alienating Trump’s Republican base.

“To obscure his tilt toward the Democrats on almost all issues, Schultz has quickly settled on a strategy of loudly criticizing ideas popular on the party’s far-left flank.”

Brownstein perceives in Schultz’s strategy echoes of the (now defunct) centrist group, the Democratic Leadership Council, which Bill Clinton embraced in his trek to the White House.  But there’s a huge difference in the two strategies. The DLC and Clinton worked for years “inside the Democratic Party.” Regardless of what you think of Clinton or his policies, he sought to “rebuild a political majority that would allow Democrats to regain control of the national agenda from the increasingly militant conservatism within the GOP.”

Schultz seeks to do the opposite: to split the Democrats and peel off Democratic voters to his independent campaign.

‘Exaggerating the power of the left in the Democratic coalition, he’s portraying the party as beyond redemption for anyone holding centrist views. To make that case, Schultz is echoing claims from Trump and other Republicans that Democrats have become radical. At times, Schultz has even called some of the Democratic ideas he opposes “un-American” or “not American,” not to mention “punitive” and “ridiculous.”

By validating the Republican efforts to portray Democrats as outside the mainstream, Schultz is helping Trump already.’

State of Trump’s Union 2019

1. “No one has benefitted more from our thriving economy than women, who have filled 58 percent of the new jobs created in the last year. ”

[Cue celebration by Democratic women in the House]

“You were not supposed to do that. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. All Americans can be proud that we have more women in the workforce than ever before. Don’t sit yet. You are going to like this.

And exactly one century after the Congress passed the constitutional amendment giving women the right to vote, we also have more women serving in the Congress than ever before.

That’s great. Very great. And congratulations.” – Donald Trump, SOTU 2019

Let’s give credit where credit is due. Trump’s campaign, election, and tenure in the White House inspired those women to run – and fueled their victories.

2. “An economic miracle is taking place in the United States — and the only thing that can stop it are foolish wars, politics or ridiculous partisan investigations. If there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigation. It just doesn’t work that way!”

A threat? Wishful thinking? Bargaining by the reality-television dealmaker?

Nixon’s proclamation in his 1974 SOTU, “One year of Watergate is enough,” didn’t get him off the hook. I don’t expect Congress – or Mueller – to turn tail and run this time either. Those newly elected women (and men) in the new majority in Congress, as well as returning Democrats, didn’t come to town to ignore, excuse, lie, and cover up like Paul Ryan’s crew did.

3. “But we must reject the politics of revenge, resistance, and retribution – and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise, and the common good.”

4. Stacey Abrams provided the Democratic response to Trump’s SOTU address. Here’s hoping we’ll see her in the U.S. Senate before long.

Roger – “Admit nothing, deny everything, launch counterattack” – Stone reacts to criminal indictment by Mueller

Roger Stone mimicked his hero, Richard Nixon (who flashed his trademark V for victory pose on the campaign trail and on his last flight on Marine One), by striking the same stance in celebration of his indictment. Stone kept his polo shirt on when addressing the media today, so we didn’t get a glimpse of the Nixon tattoo that adorns Stone’s back. Perhaps next time he’ll rip off his shirt and show us a Trump tattoo accompanying the visage of the 37th president.

“Admit nothing …” quote from the New Yorker.

Image: screen grab from MSNBC.

Poll: A majority of Americans support raising the top tax rate to 70 percent

The media’s favorite democratic socialist, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – sorry, Bernie Sanders – has proposed raising the marginal tax rate on income above $10 million to 70%. (That’s where it was when Ronald Reagan was elected; it was 28% when Reagan left office.)

It turns out that most voters agree with the Congresswoman from the Bronx:

In the latest The Hill-HarrisX survey, which was conducted Jan. 12 and 13 after the newly elected congresswoman called for the U.S. to raise its highest tax rate to 70 percent, found that a sizable majority of registered voters, 59 percent, supports the idea.

Women support the idea by a 62-38 percent margin. A majority of men back it as well, 55 percent to 45 percent. The proposal is popular in all regions of the country with a majority of Southerners backing it by a 57 to 43 percent margin. Rural voters back it as well, 56 percent to 44 percent.

Republicans oppose the idea by 55% to 45%.

(Wikipedia photo of Reagan at home in California in 1976, four years before his election as president.)

William Barr, Trump’s nominee for Attorney General, embraces a maximal theory of presidential power

Rejecting mainstream constitutional views, William P. Barr, the deputy attorney general, told Mr. Bush that he wielded unfettered power to start a major land war on his own — not only without congressional permission, but even if Congress voted against it.
“Mr. President, there’s no doubt that you have the authority to launch an attack,” Mr. Barr said, as he later recalled.

“Trump Says He Alone Can Do It. His Attorney General Nominee Usually Agrees.” by Charlie Savage, New York Times

 “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.” – Article 2, Section 1, United States Constitution

Is this power – clearly granted – absolute, without any exception? Or (like the First Amendment, which guarantees freedom of speech, but not the right to shout, ‘Fire!’ in a crowded theater) is it of more limited scope? To put the question another way: Is the president’s executive power unchecked by other provisions of the Constitution, other branches of government, and the rule of law?  

William Barr espouses – take your pick – a “maximalist theory of presidential power” or a “maximalist theory of executive power.” (I regard the two expressions as interchangeable for the purposes of this post.) I had never encountered the phrase (in either version) before Donald Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. An article in Slate (last July), “Kavanaugh Must Explain His Views on Presidential Immunity,” expressing concern that the nominee appeared to believe that the Constitution shielded a president from criminal investigation and indictment by the Department of Justice (with ominous implications for the Mueller investigation), introduced the expression:

‘Judge Kavanaugh helped pioneer a maximalist theory of presidential power associated with the notion of a “unitary executive.”’

As suggested in this quote, the debate about presidential power (if not the recent phrasing), is hardly new.

The concept of the president as a unitary executive was at the time the Constitution was drafted and ratified (1787-1788). While there is little disagreement that the president possesses executive authority, the past half century has seen considerable debate about the limits of this authority. During the Nixon administration the War Powers Resolution of 1973 and Arthur Schlesigner’s book (published the same year), The Imperial Presidency, touched directly on the issue.

More recently, John Yoo’s memos sanctioning presidential-approved torture of terrorist suspects brought the issue to the fore:

In March 2009, about a month after President George W. Bush and Dick Cheney left office, Scott Horton declared that “[w]e may not have realized it, but in the period from late 2001-January 19, 2009, this country was a dictatorship.  That was thanks to secret memos crafted deep inside the Justice Department that effectively trashed the Constitution.”  Some of the most infamous of these memos were drafted by John Yoo, an Office of Legal Counsel attorney from 2001-2003.  Yoo and others – most notably, Cheney’s counsel, David Addington – advanced the unitary executive theory, a theory of presidential power Cheney had personally favored for decades.

The unitary executive theory, as implemented by the Bush administration, was claimed to justify effectively unchecked presidential power over the use of military force, the detention and interrogation of prisoners, extraordinary rendition and intelligence gathering.

“Exploring the Limits of Presidential Power,” by Chris Edelson, American Constitution Society

Even at the conservative Cato Institute, the expansive view of the unitary executive has been criticized as problematic:

‘… Kavanaugh does not consider the possibility that concentrating even greater power in the hands of a single person — the president — also poses grave risks. The “unitary executive” theory underlying his opinion made sense in a world where the executive branch was confined to the comparatively narrow range of powers granted by the original meaning of the Constitution. It is far more problematic today, including on originalist grounds.’

William Barr’s role, as described at the beginning of this post, concerned the George H.W. Bush administration. Barr relates the story with gee-whiz enthusiasm at offering legal counsel to the Commander in Chief, who addressed him as ‘Bill,’ to oral history scholars at UVA’s Miller Center. [Note: the last line of the excerpt has been redacted.]

So I went over to the meeting. It was one of these out-of-body experiences, because any constitutional lawyer would love to be asked this question under these circumstances. The President said, Bill—and I’m sure part of this was display. I realized that, and therefore answered accordingly. There was no doubt in my mind that he could do it.

He said, Bill, I’ve been reading these articles. This op-ed piece the other day said I don’t have the authority to launch an attack on the Iraqis. What’s your view, what’s the Justice Department’s view on whether I have the authority? I’m sort of flattered that he asked me a cold question without having discussed it with me first, because it meant he knew what answer I was going to give him.

I said, Mr. President, there’s no doubt that you have the authority to launch an attack. I explained why I thought he did under the Constitution as Commander-in-Chief, and I gave him some different theories. After saying he could do it, I gave him a secondary theory—which I was sort of proud of at the time, it was a bootstrap argument. I said, Now another reason here, Mr. President, is—even for the critics who would say that that wasn’t true—there’s no doubt that you have the authority to put 500,000 troops in the field. Congress authorized—through the approval of the UN whatever they are, resolutions, and through their authorization and all that stuff, Congress has definitely approved you putting 500,000 troops over there face-to-face with the Iraqi Army.

We have intelligence that they have weapons of mass destruction—chemical weapons, biological weapons—and your job as Commander-in-Chief is to make sure those troops are not preemptively attacked. If you feel as Commander-in-Chief that in order to protect your Army in the field you have to launch first, you absolutely can do that. Which I thought was an ingenious argument, ████████████████████████████████████████

William P. Barr Oral History, Assistant Attorney General; Deputy Attorney General; Attorney General – Transcript

In December, after Trump had nominated him to be Attorney General, the Wall St. Journal broke a story revealing that Barr had sent a private, unsolicited memo (because he was “deeply concerned with the institutions of the Presidency and the Department of Justice”) advising DOJ that Mueller’s investigation needed to be reined in as it related to obstruction of justice.

Mueller is proposing an unprecedented expansion of obstruction laws so as to reach facially-lawful actions taken by the President in exercising the discretion vested in him by the Constitution.

Second, in a further unprecedented step, Mueller would apply this sweeping prohibition to facially-lawful acts taken by public officials exercising of their discretionary powers if those acts influence a proceeding. Thus, under this theory, simply by exercising his Constitutional discretion in a facially-lawful way — for example, by removing or appointing an official; using his prosecutorial discretion to give direction on a case; or using his pardoning power — a President can be accused of committing a crime based solely on his subjective state of mind. As a result, any discretionary act by a President that influences a proceeding can become the subject of a criminal grand jury investigation, probing whether the President acted with an improper motive.

Casting doubt on the legitimacy of the special counsel’s probe of obstruction, Barr’s memo appealed to his view that the Constitution provided elections every four years, and impeachment by Congress, as the remedy for an errant executive:

In framing a Constitution that entrusts broad discretion to the President, the Framers chose the means they thought best to police the exercise of that discretion. The Framers’ idea was that, by placing all discretionary law enforcement authority in the hands of a single “Chief Magistrate” elected by all the People, and by making him politically accountable for all exercises of that discretion by himself or his agents, they were providing the best way of ensuring the “faithful exercise” of these powers. Every four years the people as a whole make a solemn national decision as to the person whom they trust to make these prudential judgments. In the interim, the people’s representatives stand watch and have the tools to oversee, discipline, and, if they deem appropriate, remove the President from office. Thus, under the Framers’ plan, the determination whether the President is making decisions based on “improper” motives or whether he is “faithfully” discharging his responsibilities is left to the People, through the election process, and the Congress, through the Impeachment process. 

‘Re: Mueller’s “Obstruction” Theory’ by Bill Barr

Today we learned that Barr sent the memo to more than a dozen people, including virtually every attorney close to Trump: ‘Barr, who reportedly interviewed to be Trump’s defense lawyer last year, shared the memo with members of Trump’s legal team around the time he submitted it to Rosenstein and Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, according to a letter Barr wrote to Senate Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham late Monday night. White House Special Counsel Emmet Flood and White House Counsel Pat Cipollone both received a copy of the memo, Barr told Graham, and he discussed its contents with Trump’s lawyers Marty and Jane Raskin and Jay Sekulow, as well as with Jared Kushner’s attorney Abbe Lowell. “My purpose was not to influence public opinion on the issue, but rather to make sure that all of the lawyers involved carefully considered the potential implications of the [obstruction] theory,” Barr wrote.’

Confirmation hearings for Barr begin today. The views of the next Attorney General (who, in the absence of a bombshell revelation, will almost certainly be William Barr) regarding presidential power will be extraordinarily consequential. Donald Trump has felt less constrained by democratic norms and more hostile to institutions of government (including the FBI, other intelligence agencies, DOJ, the courts, and Congress) than previous presidents. Putin’s fingerprints are all over the 2016 election. The future direction of, and public access to, the Mueller investigation will be in the balance as Barr serves as Attorney General for the second time.

The savvy, wizened GOP Senate leader is not just protecting his members: he is afraid of losing his next election if he stands up to Trump

January 15 update: David Dayen and Akela Lacy have come to the same conclusion I did (“Why Won’t Mitch McConnell Just End Trump’s Shutdown: He’s Up for Re-Election in 2020”). They write: “It’s one thing to deal with the wild mood swings and irrationality of Trump during the shutdown. But McConnell is acting as Trump’s clone in the Senate. Sometimes an upcoming re-election will make a politician moderate their views. But McConnell knows, whether he likes it or not, that the modern Republican Party is a party of Trump, and if he wants to return to the Senate, he cannot let a sliver of daylight come between him and his president.”

Initial post: Why is the Senate Majority Leader missing in action on the government shutdown?

Maybe McConnell doesn’t want his members to have to choose between bucking Trump and opening the government, given Trump still enjoys high approval rating within the party.” (“Mitch McConnell could end the shutdown. But he’s sitting this one out,” Washington Post)

“McConnell has a record of negotiating bipartisan deals as well as protecting his Republican members from politically costly votes.” (“Government shutdown: How much longer can Mitch McConnell sit it out?” Los Angeles Times)

True enough, but both these accounts leave something out: McConnell, hardly popular in Kentucky (though always more popular than whichever Democrat he faces in the general election), is as vulnerable to a primary challenge in 2020 as anyone else in the Republican caucus. (And, after increasing levels of chaos in the Trump White House throughout the first two years, beating a Democrat after two more years of who knows what, may not be a sure thing by November 2020 even in Kentucky.)

So, let’s not overlook the fact that the man is as fearful of standing up to Trump – because it could lead to his defeat – as any Republican in the Senate.

(Photo of McConnell at CPAC in 2011 via wikimedia.)

Sean Hannity at Fox News signals the president on the Trump agenda: “National Emergency!”

Video courtesy of Twitter:


January 10 update:

https://twitter.com/passantino/status/1083468759505858560