Category Archives: Democrats

Should Joe Biden and the Democrats welcome help from GOP Never Trumpers to defeat the President?

“It is possible for Biden to beat Trump without attracting many conservative votes. But it is not possible for him to win in a giant landslide without winning moderate conservative votes.” — Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes in “The Revenge of the Never Trumpers.”

That’s a Yes.

Moreover, a landslide will help deliver the Senate to Democrats — and the more victories in 2020, the more secure the Democratic majority will be after inevitable defeats in less favorable election cycles in the future.

A number of folks on the left side of the political spectrum have criticized the Lincoln Project and John Kasich’s prime time role at the Democratic convention. The most substantive objection is that, somehow, Republican Never Trumpers might gain undue influence over Joe Biden’s agenda, moving him toward a hawkish foreign policy, and away from health care expansion and increases in the corporate tax rate.

I don’t buy it. If a Biden win brings a new Democratic majority to the Senate, it will be the influence of conservative Democratic senators — not Republicans and former-Republicans who joined Democrats in opposing Trump — that shape the breadth and reach of his policy successes in 2021.

Besides — Biden hasn’t won the election. There are 98 days to go until November 3. A lot can happen — and will. Rejecting disaffected conservatives from a broad Biden coalition is foolish.

(Photograph: Voters in line to cast ballots in California’s March 2020 primary.)

Why is the United States, with 4% of the world’s population, #1 — at 25% –in COVID-19 cases?

Chuck Todd interviews Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

Todd: President Trump’s Tulsa rally came one day after the United States recorded the most new cases of COVID-19 since May 3. And at a point when, according to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. is doing a far worse job of controlling the pandemic than the European Union is doing – basically similar size, if you will. Look at that graph. . . .

Dr. Osterholm, welcome back…. How do you explain that the United States have 25% of the globe’s cases and we’re sadly number one with the rocket ship? …

Osterholm: … At this point we don’t really have a national plan that really puts together what we’re trying to do. We have 50 different states, the District of Columbia, the territories – all kind of with their own plan. And you’ve seen in the past week how disjointed that is.

What are we trying to do? We’re at 70-percent of the number of cases today that we were at the very height of the pandemic cases in early April. And yet I don’t see any kind of a – This is where we need to go and this is what we need to do to get there kind of effort. And that’s one of our challenges.

Todd: Is this a failure of testing and tracing – is that where this failure is? Or is this just across the board?

Osterholm: Well, we have to understand, as I’ve said to you on multiple occasions, We’re not driving this Tiger, we’re riding it. And while other areas have done much better around the world in stopping it after a difficult period of time with it, we haven’t done that.

And part of that is the fact that we have not really, I think, gotten the message across to the public yet that this is a very serious issue; that we can’t shut down our economy, but we just can’t suddenly say, We’re done with it.

This virus is operating on its own time, under its own rules, not anything we impose on it. And we’re now trying to act like somehow we can policy-wise impose our will on this virus. And that’s what’s happened.

Other countries have been much more aware of the fact that the virus is going to do what it’s going to do. And so you have to basically stay locked down. You have to limit transmission in areas that we’re not doing. And that’s why I think you’re seeing right now is increases in a number of states, because everybody’s back to a pre-pandemic mindset.

Dr. Osterholm: “… we have not really, I think, gotten the message across to the public yet that this is a very serious issue.”

The Messenger in Chief, of course, is Donald Trump. And that is not the message that he is communicating. So, it is Republicans, who look to him as their leader, who are least likely to have gotten the message.

Consider one aspect of the public health message that the public hasn’t gotten — wearing masks to prevent the spread of the virus and protect other people. A Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that

Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans (70% v. 37%) to say they wear a mask “every time” they leave their house and while most people (72%) think President Trump should wear a mask when meeting with other people, only about half of Republicans (48%) agree. The partisan difference in opinion and behavior regarding masks is largely driven by Republican men. About half of Republican men report wearing a protective mask at least most of the time when leaving their house to go someplace where they may come into contact with others (49%) and smaller shares say President Trump should wear a mask when meeting with other people (43%).

Trump’s policy on the coronavirus is denial. And numbers make the President look bad. In Tulsa, the President said, “When you do testing to that extent you’re going to find more people, you’re going to find cases. So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’ They test and they test. We got tests for people who don’t know what’s going on.”

White House officials insisted that Trump was only kidding. But when asked on Tuesday about his comments, Trump replied, “I don’t kid.”

And there is evidence to back up Trump’s serious intent: “The Trump administration is planning to end federal support for some coronavirus testing sites across the nation at the end of the month — including seven in Texas, where confirmed cases of COVID are spiking.”

As a campaign strategy denial doesn’t look very promising, but that, clearly, is the strategy the Trump campaign is running with now. Trump said in February, “It’s going to disappear.” Trump told Sean Hannity last week, “It’s going to fade away.”

Trump’s most fervent followers, especially Republican men, are ready, willing, and able to accept the President’s wishful thinking.

The policy of wishful thinking is the reason the United States is Number 1 in the world in coronavirus infections and deaths. It is the reason that the coronavirus is not going to disappear. The virus will “operate on its own time, under its own rules.” And Donald Trump refuses to do anything to stop it.

Americans view Trump and COVID-19 through starkly different lenses: one Red, one Blue

The dire lack of test kits (in spite of repeated denials and broken promises by the Trump administration) continues to hamper public health efforts to contain the coronavirus. When asked (on March 13) whether he accepted responsibility for the shortage, Trump replied:

“No, I don’t take responsibility at all.”

Instead he blamed the Obama administration for an unspecificed “decision” that tied his hands (more than three years after he took office). Policy experts were baffled by the claim. (“To our knowledge, there were some discussions about laboratory developed test rules but nothing was ever put into place. So we are not aware of anything that changed how LDTs are regulated.”)

There is also a dire shortage of personal protective equipment, PPE — such as face shields, masks, head covers, and respirators — for doctors, nurses, and other medical staff. In light of this shortfall, medical personnel are even being instructed to reuse (generally single-use) N-95 masks.

When asked about the lack of safety equipment, Trump shrugged off responsibility and pointed to the nation’s governors:

“Governors are supposed to be doing a lot of this work. . . . The federal government is not supposed to be out there buying vast amounts of items, and then shipping. We’re not a shipping clerk.”

This is not leadership. But for nearly half the country, it’s close enough to satisfy.

Ronald Brownstein (“Red and Blue America Aren’t Experiencing the Same Pandemic”) notes that the spread of the coronavirus is playing out much differently in Red and Blue areas of the country: “That disconnect is already shaping, even distorting, the nation’s response to this unprecedented challenge—and it could determine the pandemic’s ultimate political consequences as well.

National surveys reveal that Democrats express greater concern about the virus than Republicans, and attest to making more changes in their personal behavior in response. Democratic governors for the most part are acting aggressively to slow the spread of the virus; fewer Republicans (Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is an exception) are doing so.

Furthermore, the ideological disparity is matched by a geographical division. New York, Washington, and California — in virtue of the disease’s impact in their metro areas — have by far the most cases, though other states (especially those with large cities) are catching up. In Red states with large metro areas — Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and Tennessee, for instance — Democratic mayors and city councils are imposing social distancing restrictions.

Brownstein quotes Geoffrey Kabaservice, author of Rule and Ruin (a history of the modern Republican Party), regarding the urban-rural divide:

“There’s a long history of conservatives demonizing the cities as sources of disease to threaten the ‘pure heartland.’ That’s an old theme. . . . So that could be how it goes down.”

Kabaservice also alludes to the Republican suspicion of elites who comprise the scientific establishment and academia, professionals within government agencies, and of course the media (apart from Fox News Channel and other outfits within the conservative media universe).

We are seeing that on each side of the divide, folks are falling in line with the preconceptions of their tribe. Democrats look to scientific and medical authorities, acknowledge the reality of the pandemic, and accept journalists’ reports on Trump’s dissembling and his administration’s evident failures. Republicans are more likely to accept Trump’s messaging that diminishes the threat, to trust his efforts to protect public health, to endorse his rejection of expert opinion inside and outside of government, and to share his finger pointing at China, other countries, Democrats, and journalists whose reporting casts doubt on the President’s rosy view.

This exchange is all too typical, and will be viewed from starkly different lenses by Democrats and Republicans:

Peter Alexander (asking what he regarded as a softball question): “What do you say to Americans who are watching you right now who are scared?”

Trump responds: “I say that you’re a terrible reporter. That’s what I say.”

I think it’s a very nasty question. And I think it’s a very bad signal that you’re putting out to the American people.

The American people are looking for answers and they are looking for hope. And you’re doing sensationalism — and the same with NBC and Concast. I don’t call it Comcast, I call it Concast … for whom you work.

Let me just say something: That’s really bad reporting. And you ought to get back to reporting, instead of sensationalism.

Let’s see if it works. It might. And it might not. I happen to feel good about it. But, who knows? I’ve been right a lot! Let’s see what happens.

Donald Trump has never sought to appeal to all Americans. He consistently appeals to his base, while disparaging the other half of the country. (My first post in this blog referenced this dichotomy.)

And I believe Trump is in sync with his base. The grassroots Republicans who embrace the President come what may, don’t want to hear any message that detracts from the party line. They want to hear Trump’s rosy scenario.

And Trump could be right. Within a few months, we may look back at COVID-19 as something that didn’t have the dire, long-term consequences media reports have led us to expect. It may, like a miracle, just disappear one day, perhaps mere weeks from now.

Trump’s supporters are sticking with him, hoping for — even expecting — the best. He can weave, and dodge, and change his story as often as he likes. He can point his fingers at everyone but himself. He can make fanciful claims, deny observable facts, and contradict scientists and medical authorities. But his base embraces his authority and outlook. (“He doesn’t lie. I know y’all say he does. He doesn’t. He doesn’t.“)

And what if things don’t turn out for the best? Will their support waver? Will they stray from the party when it comes time to vote in November?

Don’t count on it (even though some may jump off the Trump train). More likely: the hardcore base, the true believers in Trump’s camp — the overwhelming majority of Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 — will readily blame the Chinese, the Europeans, the Mexicans. They will point the finger at Democrats, liberals, elites — the folks who, in their judgment, look down on them. They will fault urban dwellers, minorities, and non-white immigrants who, in their view, don’t qualify as real Americans.

If things turn out badly, if COVID-19 hits their communities as hard as it is beginning to hit the Blue regions of the country, they are likely to add yet another grievance to their indictment of the liberal establishment, not to hold Trump responsible.

Whether Trump is right or wrong, whether his bet — playing exclusively to the Republican base — will pay off in November, this is the wager that Trump is staking his Presidency on.

It’s a wager he has placed before. He won the prize in 2016.

We have Blue America on one side, Red America on the other. The outcome in November will hinge on turnout. And perhaps, if things are close enough, on that mushy middle, that sliver of folks who mostly don’t pay enough attention to have a side.

An ABC/Ipsos poll reveals that a healthy majority of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling the response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Right now the mushy middle seems to be leaning toward Trump.

November 3 is a long way off. We don’t know how bad things will get or how long recovery will take. At this stage, though, the 2020 election appears to represent a daunting challenge for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.

Thoughts on the Democratic primary in the aftermath of Super Tuesday

After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden has pushed Bernie Sanders from his position as frontrunner. With everyone else out of the way, Bloomberg especially, it’s a two-man race for the Democratic nomination.

In 2016, I initially gave Sanders a pass when he continued campaigning even after it was obvious he had no chance of beating Hillary Clinton. After all, one of his goals was to amass enough delegates that he could influence the party platform and push it to the left. To do that, he had to keep competing.

But he’s done that. – Kevin Drum

Agreed. I was indulgent of Sanders’ protracted 2016 primary campaign because of my confidence that Hillary Clinton would win in November. If Sanders falters this time, let’s hope the senator promptly concedes and gets behind the Democratic nominee.

Perhaps the starkest symbol of Sanders’s limitations last night was the resurgence of a problem that severely damaged him in 2016: widespread resistance from primary voters who self-identify as Democrats (as opposed to independents). . . .

The Super Tuesday exit polls showed Biden beating Sanders among self-identified Democrats by about 30 percentage points in both Virginia and North Carolina, about 25 points in Oklahoma, 20 points in Tennessee, and nearly 50 in Alabama. Sanders was more competitive among Democratic partisans in the New England states of Massachusetts and Maine. But the overall pattern was unmistakable.

His collapse among Democratic partisans came after recent full-throated attacks on “the Democratic establishment” in his rallies and media appearances. Sanders has often sounded more as if he believes he’s leading his movement in a hostile takeover of the party than a merger with it. – Ronald Brownstein

Yeah. Democrats can’t resist complaining about the Democratic Party – but the millions of Democratic voters are a diverse bunch. Our communities are as diverse as we are. We don’t always agree. That’s the nature of a broad coalition under a big tent. Most Democrats, in the election of our lives, are seeking someone to unify us, not scold us – or our leaders. Attacking the Democratic establishment is a discordant rallying cry, especially from someone who regards himself as standing outside the tent.

When the campaign began, I had a fervent wish not to have to vote for an old white guy. It wasn’t always clear to me, if I didn’t get my wish, whether a Biden or a Sanders nomination would be the most disappointing.

From my vantage point today, Biden looks like the best bet to help Democrats boot out Trump and take back the Senate. Joe Biden has significant vulnerabilities, including looking and acting like a not especially vibrant 77-year-old; a continuing career of gaffes, verbal tangents, and visibly losing his train of thought; and an inability, thus far, to explain simply and coherently why the Hunter, Burisma, and Ukraine tales hammered by Republicans aren’t on a par with Trump’s corruption. But he is one of us, the last one standing (since Sanders chooses to stand apart from us), and it’s us against them.

That said, yesterday I cast a ballot – with no expectations that she would hit 15% in California – for Elizabeth Warren. Here’s hoping this terrific senator returns to Washington next year to a chamber with a Democratic majority. And, give her credit, Warren had the starring role in taking down Mike Bloomberg and his obscene $600,000,000+ campaign (which, not incidentally, provided a critical assist in the resurrection of the Biden campaign).

L.A. County’s new “ballot marking device” worked like a charm (though the process of checking in voters was very, very slow).
Casting a ballot for Elizabeth Warren in March 2020 primary election.

(Image of Joe Biden from his twitter page.)

If only the women running for the Democratic nomination were more likable

“A gentle warning to Democrats who are newly awakened to the prospect of Amy Klobuchar:

Remember that right now you like her. . . .

A woman but not, you know, the Elizabeth Warren kind of woman everyone had decided they didn’t like or couldn’t win. . . An electable woman. Acceptable to the assorted Biden castoffs and Buttigieg skeptics. . . .” — Monica Hesse (“You like Amy Klobuchar now? Remember that when your inner sexist starts doubting her,” WaPo, February 13, 2020).

As Hesse reminds us, Hillary Clinton had a 65% approval rating as Secretary of State, while Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand made strong positive first impressions when they declared their candidacies — until doubts about how likable (or, in some way or another, how presidential) they were overtook them.

In a November 2019 post, I noted that Elizabeth Warren was being transformed from a “cheerful, exuberant, uber-competent woman who simply gets things done and makes everyone feel included and proud” — à la Mary Poppins — into another unlikable Democratic woman.

I’m still with Ed Kilgore: C’mon, Democrats, don’t buy into Trump’s misogyny. Women serving in the House, the Senate, as governors and state legislators, and in local offices all the way down the electoral ladder are highly successful.

There is a long list of reasons why Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016: Vladimir Putin; Steve Bannon, Robert Mercer, and Clinton Cash; James Comey; complacency; her campaign’s neglect of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin … I could go on and on, and never mention sexism.

But after 2016, Democrats are spooked. They are second-guessing their own judgment — er, um, the judgment of other voters — on who is best qualified to beat Trump. Gotta make a safe choice, right?

Wouldn’t it be great to elect a woman, though? Kilgore quotes Li Zhou, who makes the case that the prospect of electing women creates added excitement among Democratic voters. Remember 2018 when Democrats, and a record number of women candidates, took back the House?

After November 2016, and the Mueller Report, and the Senate acquittal of Trump, and the week since the acquittal, fear is gripping Democrats by the throat.

Better — in my view — to act with clarity and confidence of what matters to Democrats, of what we stand for, of the vision and priorities that distinguish us from Republicans, than to succumb to fear and a thousand doubts about electability.

“There’s only one moral imperative … and that is to beat Donald Trump” — James Carville

There is only one moral imperative in this country right now and that is to beat Donald Trump. That’s the only moral imperative. It’s the only thing I wanna hear.” — James Carville, insisting that Democrats need to stop talking about “stuff that is not relevant,” … “goofy stuff,” … “exotic positions,” and address the pragmatic concerns of American voters, reflecting “the struggles that people go through…”

Then Claire McCaskill prompted these observations:

“We gotta decide what we wanna be. Do we want to be an ideological cult? Or do we want to have a majoritarian instinct to be a majority party?

I know where you stand, Senator, since you had to run in a Red State.”

“Right,” replies McCaskill.

So, again, you and I know that 18% of the country elects 52 Senators. And the urban core is not gonna get it done.

What we need is power. You understand, that’s what this is about. Without power you have nothing. You just have talking points.”

Carville (convinced that a Bernie Sanders’ nomination, even if he won the White House, would likely result in Mitch McConnell keeping his majority in the Senate, in which case a Democratic president could get nothing done) believes that a candidate with appeal outside the urban areas (where most Democrats, especially those on the left side of the party, are clustered) would be more likely to lead to a big victory — including taking back the Senate. Note, in contrast to many ‘centrist’ critics of Sanders, Carville (a self-described liberal) is a fan of Elizabeth Warren and was rooting for her to get her campaign back on track.

Political scientists explain why Republicans overlook the truth and the facts

Political scientists Matt Grossmann and David A. Hopkins have written a book, Asymmetric Politics, that offers a framework for understanding American politics – and in particular to explain consistent differences in the behavior of Democrats and Republicans. Beginning with a key insight – party asymmetry – that has been noted in the past (prominently by Jo Freeman, “The Political Culture of the Democratic and Republican Parties,” 1986), but often ignored in subsequent inquiry and analysis, their book provides a window into contemporary politics in the United States.

Party asymmetry is at the root of much that is distinctive about American politics and government. We synthesize a wide variety of research in order to document the most consequential differences between Democrats and Republicans and emphasize their widespread implications…. Recognizing the distinct styles of each party can produce better explanations for political events and trends, including contemporary polarization and dysfunction.

Their analysis is spot on and, if I’m right, it reaches beyond the differentiating patterns they discuss in their book.

One difference between Republicans and Democrats – and this is my observation (though hardly original) and not Grossmann and Hopkins’ – is found in the relationship each side has to truth, facts, and evidence. Here’s one way to put it (my first take): Republicans rely on lies, half-truths, and a variety of tactics – such as throwing up chaff, muddying the waters, attacking the messenger, and spreading false narratives – to obscure, hide, and distract from inconvenient facts and credible standards of evidence. This behavior represents a consistent difference between Republicans and Democrats (whose political success requires, for instance, a more rigorous embrace of facts, both general and specific).

In reading the book, I realized early on that Asymmetric Politics offered a persuasive explanation for this difference in the behavior of the two parties – a difference that is clearly observable and (even with the he-said-she-said, both-sides-are-squabbling journalistic style of the mainstream media) increasingly hard to ignore. (The impeachment spectacle – with Republican defenses of Trump that point in every direction except the President’s, will not acknowledge any facts not embraced by Fox News Channel or @realDonaldTrump, and finally rely on “flat-out falsehoods,” as Jonathan Bernstein observed – is a case in point.) While Asymmetric Politics never addresses this specific difference, the framework that Grossmann and Hopkins establish explains why we find this divergence vis-à-vis truth, facts, and evidence in the behavior of the two parties.

In this post, I will set out the first step of an explanation that follows from the framework developed in Asymmetric Politics. It is only the first step, so it doesn’t take us as far as I believe the complete explanation does. But the first step is significant.

To simplify and advance my argument, I will set aside the description in the italicized sentence above and adopt the language of a former Republican Member of Congress. Republicans are (in the words of David Jolly) “willing to engage in overlooking the truth, overlooking facts.” Democrats, not so much.

Let’s begin with Jolly’s characterization of Republican behavior. Note that the discussion in Part I does not draw on the account in Asymmetric Politics. Note also: how Republican messaging has come to rely on outright falsehoods (rather than simply overlooking truth and facts) appears at a subsequent step in the explanation. For this post, and step one, we will stick with Jolly’s way of putting things.

I. Republicans engage in overlooking the truth and overlooking facts

David Jolly, commenting on the Republican response to the testimony of Fiona Hill before the House Intelligence Committee (on MSNBC during a break in Fiona Hill and David Holmes’ testimony), had this to say:

What Fiona Hill said to us and the nation is, ‘We’re in trouble.’ It reflected very much what we heard from Bob Mueller’s closing statement. It reflected what he heard from an impassioned Elijah Cummings: That we are a nation whose divisions have been exploited by a foreign state. And the reason that context is important is, first, what are we going to do about it? And, secondly, it paints the Republican line of questioning as not just maddening but sickening in many ways. Heartbreaking. That, in fact, perhaps Russia has achieved what it was striking out to achieve. That we have one of the two major parties who’s willing to engage in overlooking the truth, overlooking facts.

These comments (which are hardly controversial among informed observers not sheltered within the conservative media bubble) highlight the phenomenon I wish to discuss. Jolly doesn’t use the word, ‘lie’ (or ‘falsehood’ or another synonym). His words are less harsh, more compatible with traditional norms of civil discourse, and nearer to the traditional language of the mainstream media, than my italicized statement.

Jolly frames the phenomenon as overlooking the truth and facts. And his way of putting it – “willing to engage in overlooking” – suggests that this phenomenon is not characterized by carelessness, or inattention, or neglect; it is, instead, an active accomplishment performed freely. It is, in my view (taking Jolly off the hook regarding my argument), something that Republicans have set out to do – purposely, with malice aforethought. Overlooking the truth and facts is an act of artifice or evasion.

(Since I’ve invoked Jolly, I’ll acknowledge in passing a December 6 Vox interview regarding Republicans’ efforts to defend Trump. When Sean Illing asks, “You know these people. I assume you still talk to them. What are they thinking?” Jolly responds:

I can’t tell you how many Republican members of Congress have told me, “I’m just trying to keep my head down and not get noticed.” They see all the excitement stirred up by people like Jim Jordan and Devin Nunes but at least half the caucus wants to stay the hell out of the media. They’re not looking to make a name through this, they’re looking to survive this.

I struggle with whether some of their behaviors are an intentional decision on their part to engage in either misdirection, or to overlook the facts because they have a fealty to the president or because they want to put a stake in the ground in right-wing media or because it just works in their districts. Or are some of them just duped into it by following the leader?)

For the purposes of this post, we need not wrestle with motivation or states of mind. Instead, I will confine myself to an observation for which there is ample evidence: Republicans engage in overlooking the truth and the facts, in contrast to Democrats.

To see how Asymmetric Politics explains this difference, let’s turn to the authors’ analysis:

II. Why do Democrats and Republicans act so differently?

The answer offered by Professors Grossman and Hopkins begins with a look at the foundational differences between the two parties. The Democratic Party is a coalition of diverse social groups. The Republican Party is the vehicle of an ideological movement.

Asymmetric Politics describes and documents this fundamental asymmetry. Many groups, with diverse interests, mobilize under the big tent of the Democratic Party: women (especially single and professional women and millennials), African Americans, urbanites, union households, environmentalists, ethnic and religious minorities, immigrants, the LGBTQ community, …. These groups (and others) may embrace different agendas (and may spurn liberalism), but they each look to the Democrats for policies that advance their interests.  The Republican Party, in contrast, is more homogenous, attracting true believers to an ideological crusade marked by devotion to a revered ideology. Adherents self-identify as conservative and, by the beginning of the 21st century, liberal and moderate Republicans had largely been purged from the GOP. (Even most of the prominent never-Trumpers in the party are conservative.)

Thus, the parties are not mirror images of one another or two sides of the same coin. They are different in kind. The disparate foundations of each party result in a cascade of consequences that play out in the political arena.

The Democratic Party’s character as a social group coalition fosters a relatively pragmatic, results-oriented style of politics in which officeholders are rewarded for delivering concrete benefits to targeted groups in order to address specific social problems. Republicans, in contrast, are more likely to forge partisan ties based on common ideological beliefs, encouraging party officials to pursue broad rightward shifts in public policy. As a result, Republican voters and activists are more likely than their Democratic counterparts to prize symbolic demonstrations of ideological purity and to pressure their party leaders to reject moderation and compromise.

The foundational asymmetry of the two parties produces distinct differences in the approaches of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, to public policy debates, campaigning, voting, and governing. Republicans – leaders and followers – behave differently than Democratic leaders and followers.

From a simple, elegant beginning – the asymmetric roots of each party – Grossmann and Hopkins develop an explanation of the partisan skirmishes we witness in national politics. Another step in their analysis hinges on the distinctive ways the parties campaign in response to “a collective inconsistency” among American voters.

III. Americans are symbolic conservatives and operational liberals

Democrats and Republicans characteristically regard political choices differently.

In surveys dating back to 1981, when Americans respond to surveys regarding specific issues, a majority – often even a majority of Republicans – favor liberal social policies (which represent the Democratic agenda). Social Security and Medicare, environmental and consumer protections, funding for education, transportation, and even welfare have ample popular support. A majority of Americans are, in the language of political scientists, “operational liberals.”

But don’t tell that to American voters. They may (whether they’ve reflected on it or not) like liberal programs, but when asked to describe their political views, more Americans identify as conservatives, than as liberals. (Gallup, in January 2019, put the number of liberals at 26%, while 35% of Americans regarded themselves as conservative.) Further, when waxing philosophical, Americans lean right, expressing a preference for a smaller, less powerful government that provides less “free stuff” (in Mitt Romney’s words, reflecting the Republican point of view). In the idiom of social science, this conservative predisposition makes Americans “symbolic conservatives.”

Recognizing this disparity, the parties play to their strengths in political campaigns and policy debates.

Candidates battling for the nomination of either party face an obvious strategic incentive to adopt the most effective means of stimulating popular appeal among their fellow partisans, which might be expected to carry over into elevated enthusiasm within the loyal party base once a successful nominee turns to face the opposition in the fall campaign. But the tendency of Democrats to emphasize policy specifics and group benefits and the corresponding Republican penchant for stressing more abstract ideological themes are both further reinforced by the broader American public’s simultaneous preference for operational liberalism and symbolic conservatism.  Democratic and Republican candidates compete for the support of persuadable voters in general elections by battling to establish their preferred frame of partisan conflict: Democrats gain an advantage by portraying the differences between the candidates as primarily defined by distinct policy positions, while Republicans benefit when voters instead view their electoral options as representing a choice between contrasting philosophical commitments.

IV. Overlooking the truth and the facts is deeply embedded in the Republican Party

The foundational differences between the parties (as described in Part II) and the differences in the way the two parties communicate their messages (as described in Part III) provides an explanation for why Republicans engage in overlooking the truth and overlooking facts, in contrast to the approach of Democrats. To see why this is so, let’s explore the implications of these contrasts – beginning with the Democrats.

Democrats in office, responsive to members of their coalition, “are rewarded for delivering concrete benefits to targeted groups in order to address specific social problems.” Democrats are intent on doing something tangible – crafting, enacting, and implementing public policies – to benefit their constituents. Practical results matter.

A moment’s reflection shows why this pragmatic imperative precludes Democratic indifference to, or dodging of, facts and evidence. Crafting legislation and rulemaking, for instance, are unlikely to turn out well unless Democrats have their facts straight. Without a solid understanding of the social problem, disadvantage, or injustice they seek to remedy or mitigate, Democrats would be hard pressed to know how to proceed. Research, policy expertise, and real-world feedback are essential to creating programs that benefit constituents.

Results-oriented Democrats have a stake in making things work – even if they must compromise or proceed incrementally to move nearer to the goal. Half a loaf is better than none. Democrats aim to offer help through public policy initiatives. This enterprise is thoroughly fact-based because that maximizes the prospects of success. And failure is unlikely to yield votes.

Republicans, on the other hand, risk defeat if they are perceived as straying from what counts as conservative doctrine. “Republican voters and activists are more likely than their Democratic counterparts to prize symbolic demonstrations of ideological purity and to pressure their party leaders to reject moderation and compromise.”

Standing up for conservative values is paramount. Moreover, conservative ideology affirms both a belief in limited government and skepticism, even hostility, toward fixing social problems through government initiatives. Add to this an aversion to helping the “takers” (Mitt Romney, again Paul Ryan) in the Democratic coalition.

When ideology is front and center, facts are beside the point. Republicans aren’t interested in facts about disadvantaged groups, or communities experiencing injustice, or public policy options to address social problems. Doing nothing – without taking facts into account – is the default position of conservative ideology.

Loyalty to conservatism demands resistance to government intervention. Any compromise – tacking this way or that way to get something done – is a failure to uphold principle. Half a loaf is half a loaf too much. Obstruction counts as success. The adage, ‘Don’t confuse me with the facts,’ is completely apropos here.

V. Democratic ACA and Republican Repeal and Replace

Consider, by way of illustrating the parties’ distinct stances regarding truth and facts, a major piece of Democratic legislation, the Affordable Care Act, and the Republican pledge to repeal and replace it.

When Barack Obama directed Congress to reform health care, after pledging to do so during his campaign, he knew there were Democrats in the House and the Senate who had spent decades studying the issue and who therefore: understood the real-world problems that accompany the way health care is delivered in the U.S.; were familiar with a range of proposed solutions, the costs and trade-offs, and the industry interests that would have to be accommodated; and had learned from Bill Clinton’s failed effort at reform early in his administration.

Health care policy is complicated, expensive, and affects everyone. Democrats were well-prepared to take up the challenge, beginning with a clear sense of the policy goals: to increase the number of Americans with health insurance, to make health care more affordable, and to enact consumer protections.

A Democratic Congress drew on academic research; the experience of doctors, hospitals, drug makers, insurers, and consumers, among others; policy expertise inside and outside of government; and lobbyists representing every sector with a stake in the issue. Congress held scores of hearings as it crafted the Affordable Healthcare Act and revised the law both to satisfy the policy goals and to secure majorities in both the House and the Senate for a bill that the President could sign.

ACA was signed into law in March 2010. It has for the most part worked as intended (even as both the Trump administration and many Republican-led states have done their best to sabotage it – efforts that are ongoing). The great majority of people with insurance from the exchanges are pleased with the law, as are others who have received tangible benefits as a result of the changes.

Passing and implementing the ACA would have been utterly impossible without an exacting command of the facts – and an unwillingness to permit wishful thinking, or ideological fervor, or irresistible campaign talking points to trump the empirically grounded details that guided the effort.

Compare that success to the Republican failure to undo the ACA, aka, Obamacare. Republicans campaigned in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 on the promise to repeal and replace Obamacare (with something better and cheaper), but after winning the White House and both houses of Congress in 2016, they proved incapable of doing so.

Why? Republicans don’t have a very deep public policy bench in Congress. GOP Congressional leaders have shown little interest in health care apart from opposition to Obamacare. The GOP didn’t conduct scores of hearings to clarify their understanding of the problems with the delivery of health care, or to assess and refine proposed solutions. Furthermore, previous GOP ideas – such as Heritage Foundation plans as early as 1989 – are no longer viable because the Republican Party has moved so far to right in the intervening years. That Heritage plan, like Mitt Romney’s reform in Massachusetts, is far too socialistic for the party now (though perhaps it was then, as well; it may have been a stalking horse).

The ideal health care policy of conservative true believers is probably the 1950s-era status quo in the United States (before the passage of Medicare). Although moderates and liberals have been purged from the party, that anachronistic vision is too draconian for many Republicans (or at least for their constituents). Tens of millions of people are insured because of Obamacare – in red states and blue. Subsidies are available. Pre-existing conditions are covered. Parents can insure their children up to age 26.

Campaigning against the individual mandate might have won votes, but coverage for preexisting conditions wouldn’t be possible without requiring everyone to have insurance. Republican voters get riled up over “socialism,” but most don’t want to see their representatives disrupt the post-Obamacare state of affairs. That might be a contradiction, but, as we know, many Republicans are operational liberals (and have benefited from the law).

So, here’s the box the GOP found itself in after November 2016: repealing unpopular provisions and regulations of ACA would eliminate the popular features. Millions of Americans appreciate the coverage the law provides; no one wants to lose benefits or to see deductibles and premiums rise. Republicans found themselves in a familiar place: opposed to government ‘overreach,’ but unable to eliminate a major social welfare program.

In the GOP, as described in Asymmetric Politics, general themes expressing traditional values (and attacks on liberalism and socialism) trump specific, concrete facts. We saw that in the case of repeatedly invoked pledges to repeal and replace. There was never, over seven years’ time, a viable plan to replace Obamacare with. There was no way to keep the popular provisions of the law, while throwing out what conservatives detested. There was hardly a plausible political route to repeal and replace. Yet Republicans repeatedly campaigned on that promise. What can we say about them? At the least: Republicans engaged in overlooking the truth and the facts when repeatedly invoking that pledge.

This is a well-worn pattern baked into the foundational fabric of the Republican Party. Facts don’t matter much when officeholders are guided by ideology (and raw partisan calculation).

V. Subsequent steps in the explanation

The next steps in the explanation of the distinctive Republican aversion to truth, facts, and trustworthy evidentiary standards begin with a look at the conservative media universe, which Grossmann and Hopkins analyze and document in Chapter 4 (“The Not-So-Great Debate”) of their book. As we approach 2020, as many observers have noted, Fox News has become a dominating force in the Republican Party; FNC not only informs (and misinforms), it motivates activists, increases Republican turnout, and punishes officeholders in the GOP; and, as Fox has gained strength, distortion and distraction have morphed into conspiracy theories and falsehoods in Republican messaging.

All topics to explore in future posts.

(Image: screen grab of video by Meg Kelly, “President Trump has made 15,413 false or misleading claims over 1,055 days,” December 16, 2019, Washington Post.)

Is a Democratic Senator’s hand wringing an abdication of responsibility?

A Democratic Senator expresses concerns that Mitch McConnell and the Republicans he leads may not uphold their responsibilities to conduct a fair, objective impeachment trial. Josh Marshall, observing that Republicans have openly embraced a contrary course of action, takes the Senator to task for not stating this plainly (“Terrible, Terrible, Terrible,” Talking Points Memo):

It is grievously irresponsible to be expressing “concerns” that Republicans may not do their job and uphold their responsibility as Senators. . . .

Republicans have made their intentions crystal clear. It is an abdication of responsibility not to state this clearly. Republicans have already decided to protect a lawless President from constitutional accountability. They’ve betrayed the constitution and their oaths. This is a point to make consistently over and over and over again. Because it is true. . . .

There’s nothing to be “concerned” about. Senate Republicans have made very clear there is no level of lawless behavior from this President that they will not defend. The public needs to know that. It needs to be said over and over. To say anything else, to express hopes this or that doesn’t happen when it already has happened only signals a damaging, demoralizing and shameful weakness.

(Image: U.S. Senate chamber circa 1873 via wikipedia.)

Might Joe Biden be having second thoughts about working cooperatively with his GOP friends?

Understatement of the day:

“The increasingly personal and angry nature of the impeachment proceedings threatens to undercut a key message of Joe Biden’s campaign — that comity and civility can return to Washington after President Trump’s departure and that he’s the man to make that happen.” Matt Viser, Washington Post (“Joe Biden unloads on Lindsey Graham amid signs GOP senators will target Hunter”)

(Image: screengrab of Democratic debate in Atlanta.)

House Democrats rough up an (unexpected) ally as they advance toward impeachment

House Democrats roughed up the Acting Director of National Intelligence, Joseph Maguire, on Thursday at a highly anticipated hearing of the House Select Committee on Intelligence. It might be good politics. Or good theater. Or perhaps it was good politics because it was good theater. But, as I watched, I was surprised at the tact Democrats had taken.

So was Congressman Chris Stewart (R-Utah), who suggested that Democrats had questioned Maguire’s honor and integrity, while accusing him of breaking the law.

After eliciting Director Maguire’s avowals that he is not political or partisan, that he has followed the law faithfully, that he has done nothing to protect the President, that he is bound by the opinions of the Office of Legal Counsel, and that the situation that confronted him was unprecedented, Congressman Stewart continued:

I will say to my colleagues sitting here: I think you’re nuts if you think you’re going to convince the American people that your cause is just by attacking this man and by impugning his character, when it’s clear that he felt there’s a discrepancy, a potential deficiency in the law. He was trying to do the right thing. He felt compelled by the law to do exactly what he did. And yet the entire tone here is that somehow you’re a political stooge who has done nothing but try to protect the President. And I just think that’s nuts. And anyone watching this hearing is surely going to walk away with the clear impression that you are a man of integrity, you did what you felt was right, regardless of the questions and the innuendo cast by some of my colleagues sitting here today.

Chairman Adam Schiff responded, “I would only say, Director, no one has accused you of being a political stooge or dishonorable. No one has said so. No one has suggested that.”

“You’ve accused him of breaking the law, Mr. Chairman.”

Schiff ignores the comment and continues:

But it is certainly our strong view, and we would hope that it would be shared by the minority, that when the Congress says that something shall be done, it shall be done. And when that involves the wrongdoing of the President, it is not an exception to the requirement of the statute. And the fact that this whistleblower has been left twisting in the wind now for weeks, has been attacked by the President, should concern all of us, Democrats and Republicans, that this was ever allowed to come to be, that allegations this serious and this urgent were withheld as long as they were from this Committee. That should concern all of us. No one is suggesting that there is a dishonor here, but nonetheless, we are going to insist that the law be followed.

Democrats believe Maguire made the wrong call when he delayed sending the complaint to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. That’s a judgment call, after the fact, and not nearly as black and white as Democrats portray it.

I don’t fault the Democrats for offering a simple message. Instead, I suggest that a bit more nimbleness – moving from Talking Point A to Talking Point B – would have been welcome.

I agree with Congressman Stewart that Director Maguire acquitted himself well. During his first week on the job, Maguire was confronted with an unprecedented situation: a whistleblower law crafted with the Intelligence Community in mind – that is, personnel under the purview of the DNI; conflicting statutes and policies, including executive privilege (over which the DNI has no authority); and, of course, charges lodged against the President of the United States.  Wishing not to misstep when presented with a unique situation of considerable gravity, the Director consulted with the Office of Legal Counsel.

Maguire has dedicated his life to service of his country. As Acting DNI, he is a federal official, not the Lone Ranger (or Jim Comey). He wasn’t prepared to wing it when faced with an unprecedented situation that a Congressional statute had not anticipated. He reached out to other professionals. In consulting with legal counsel, Director Maguire was doing his utmost to adhere to the rule of law. Arguably, to do otherwise would have been reckless and arrogant. Maguire is neither.

Yeah, he was appointed by Donald Trump. But Democrats, after taking him to task for a delay of several weeks, could have acknowledged Maguire’s commitment and resolve to do the right thing (in an administration filled with corrupt hacks!). Maguire didn’t simply sit on the report for the past month, pass the issue onto to another desk, or sweep it under the rug. He was, based on what we know, doing his utmost – consistent with his legal authority – to get the report to the Intel committees. And, finally, he had succeeded in doing so. (A number of other events contributed to this result, including leaks to the press. Perhaps Maguire couldn’t have done this on his own, but give him credit: he was determined to alert the Intel committees to what was up.)

Adam Schiff’s emphasis is understandable. Congressional investigators are no more enamored of nuance than was George W. Bush. But, as I watched on TV, I found myself (like the Republican Congressman from Utah), objecting to the Democrats’ tone and their implied aspersions.

In taking that stance, in my view, Democrats missed an opportunity—to embrace Maguire as an unlikely ally: a Trump-appointee willing and eager to serve as a character witness for much that Democrats hold dear in the Trump era.

In his opening statement – and subsequent testimony – Maguire unequivocally staked out territory consistent with Constitutional governance, democratic norms, and the rule of law.

He offered unwavering support for the whistleblower and his good faith in coming forward. He made a commitment to protect him – and everyone else in the Intelligence Community who might come forward in the future. He attested to the credibility of the whistleblower’s complaint. He stood up for the Inspector General who brought the whistleblower’s complaint forward.

He embraced the men and women of the Intelligence Community, and the critical work they do; the oversight role of the Intel committees of both houses of Congress; and the vital importance of the partnership of IC and Congress in keeping America safe and free.

A critical element in the strategy of Republicans – on Fox News and Capitol Hill – in defending Trump is to attack the integrity of the Intelligence Community. To go after individuals. To besmirch the FBI and other agencies. To howl about the Deep State.

This has been extremely damaging. Democrats have done their best to push back. Yesterday, they had an advocate for the Intelligence Community in front of the cameras. Lots of people were watching. No one was in a better, stronger position to undermine deep state nonsense than Joseph Maguire. In my view, Democrats should have spent more time drawing him out regarding the IC, in order to pull the rug out from under the clownish Devin Nunes and his ilk. Instead, we kept hearing variations on the same question: Why didn’t you notify us sooner?

I know Democrats have a case to make to the country. When Nancy Pelosi weighed in today on whether Maguire had good reason to delay sending the whistleblower report to Congress, she said, “No, he broke the law.”

Today, acknowledging the consensus view of Maguire’s basic integrity, she said, “He’s a person of great reputation. I felt sorry for him because here he is having to … I don’t know what. I think that what he did broke the law. The law is very clear.”

I raise this issue – of slight significance relative to Thursday’s hearing, which was highly consequential – because Democrats have flailed away for months trying to hold Donald Trump accountable. Now, as they head toward impeachment, they need to hit all the right notes. Impeachment, as Nancy Pelosi well knows, will be savagely divisive. Democrats need to reach out to the folks who haven’t yet chosen sides. And since the U.S. Senate is unlikely to convict Donald Trump, no matter what he does, the preeminent task for the party is persuading mostly disengaged voters – who switched from Obama 2012 to Trump 2016; or who have voted Democratic in the past, but stayed at home in 2016; or who may identify as Republican, but are weary of Donald Trump’s antics – to cast ballots for the Democratic nominee, and down-ballot candidates, in November 2020.

The party would do well to embrace allies, such as Joseph Maguire, whenever and wherever it finds them.