Gavin Newsom’s impact during his eight years as Lieutenant Governor didn’t convince me to vote for him in California’s 2018 Democratic Primary. But, watching him in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic made a believer out of me. I was impressed by his timely, decisive actions in shutting down California before most of the country’s governors had any idea what was about to hit them.
More recently, as I suggested in my last post, the governor has stumbled.
Friday morning on NRP, Steve Inskeep interviewed Dr. Emily Landon, a University of Chicago epidemiologist, who has been advising the governor of Illinois. She offered an account of Illinois’ success in acting “early on” – with a March 21 stay-at-home order that prevented the situation that developed in New York and the Northeast. Because of this success, Illinois is about to enter phase four – with more reopenings, including restaurants for indoor dining, gyms, the lakefront path, and – soon – beaches. As she explained:
Certainly, these are still risky activities. There’s still more infection than we want to be having. But if people are following the rules, keeping distance, wearing their mask – if we can keep doing those things, then it should be safe enough for us to go back to doing some of these things that we used to enjoy before the pandemic.
Inskeep responds that there are “some similarities between Illinois and California,” and notes that after California’s reopening, the virus has now returned with a vengeance, resulting in a second shutdown. Dr. Landon acknowledges that this is a cautionary tale. She says that “we need to understand better what’s happened in California,” but expresses confidence in the path Illinois is taking. She explains that
with respiratory viruses and with infection in general, there’s kind of a tipping point that happens where every case is able to spread to one or more other people on average. Then you have to do some very drastic things, like a stay-at-home order or really closing down a lot of public buildings and activities. So I don’t know exactly what’s putting California back into this situation. But I do know that if they do the same things that they did before, that it should be successful in curbing the spread of the virus.
Inskeep then turns to Dr. Ali Khan (at the University of Nebraska), who weighs in skeptically about the course Illinois is following. He points to data showing the number of cases in Illinois is increasing (from 550 in mid-June to 800) and suggests that the opening up is likely to bring further increases. (The Washington Post reported 912 cases in Illinois on July 3.) Dr. Khan continues:
But let me talk about what we’re seeing here – is this is now being shifted. And I’ve seen this now – multiple places are shifting the blame to individuals not doing what they’re supposed to be doing. I’ve not heard one person talk about test and trace. And so if you’re going to reopen, what are you doing to get cases down to zero? So no metrics. How much – you know, how soon does it take to isolate somebody? How many contacts are people following? How many cases are from contact list. So no, we cannot go back to what we did before successfully because we were not a success before because we had failed to do test and trace.
So there’s four elements of getting this disease under control. So yes, one is the community component which, is, where you mask. Social distance. And wash your hands. That’s just one component. And it’s not the primary component. The primary component is the state and the localities and the national responsibility to get cases down. Test and trace. Add that to leadership. And then add that to dropping deaths with dexamethasone. Those are the four things we need to do to become a success, just like Europe and countries like New Zealand that have eliminated the disease. So they have zero cases. And China has two cases in 1.4 billion people. We can do this in America.
I was impressed, early on, not only by Gavin Newsom, but by Los Angeles city and county officials. When officials at all three levels moved to reopen, however, I wasn’t in the least tempted to eat indoors at a restaurant or visit a hair salon, much less to attend a film at a movie theater or drop by a neighborhood bar. Granted, at age 70, I have reason to be more conscientious about maintaining physical distance and wearing a mask, than younger people do; and unlike governors, mayors, and county supervisors, I have no leadership responsibility for the welfare of the community (not public health, not economic well-being). But (based on everything I’ve learned by reading about this virus), these reopenings seemed rushed to me. And, earlier this week, both city and county testing facilities had run out of appointments. While in California, as in much of the nation, there isn’t enough testing, this month the state has halted efforts to increase testing.
Dr. Landon’s emphasis on individual choices — “… if people are following the rules, keeping distance, wearing their mask – if we can keep doing those things …” and if people “do the same things that they did before …” – is a shaky foundation to rely on. We need to lean instead on safe, sound public policies (beyond injunctions concerning individual behavior). As Dr. Kahn notes, the other elements of a sound plan – including testing and tracing – have been neglected.
Color me highly skeptical that Illinois will escape the same flareups that most states are experiencing. Illinois, like other states before it, is reopening before gaining the upper hand on the coronavirus.
Until we gain the upper hand, reopening with the hope that the virus will somehow disappear is foolhardy.
Post Script: To put our individual choices in perspective, the Washington Post did a Q and A: “How Fauci and 5 other experts handle masking, haircuts, doctor’s appointments and more.” I’ll note that all six were in sync with me on two questions at the top of my list: All of them went grocery shopping (wearing masks and keeping their distance) and none of the six were willing to eat inside a restaurant.
(Image: Photo of Il Capriccio on Vermont, July 4.)